{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae278872-d956-4f0e-96aa-9ee42c898d58", "symbol": "UBF7", "name": "UBS CMCI Commodity Carry ex-Agriculture SF UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.599, "architecture_energy": 74.48, "architecture_maturity": 22.692, "architecture_confidence": 61.722, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.62, "rotation_up": 11.92, "upward_expansion": 25.99, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 77.75, "downward_expansion": 82.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 91.832666, 94.010545, 95.890762, 95.766624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 86.68, "trend_reference": 97.245667, "distance_from_trend": -0.108649, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 122.512905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292483, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.296398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088922, "excess_performance": -0.179391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108649, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292483, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090987, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088922, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.556012, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 265, "relative_activity": 0.347723, "balance": 2.556012, "dry_up": 0.193216, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042925, "annualized_volatility": 0.448101, "from_high_reference": -0.366374, "from_low_reference": 0.100419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.245667, "fair_value_reference": 122.512905, "structural_low": 78.769997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014133, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.01658, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.093777, "worst_return": -0.262995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033613, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.084505, "worst_return": -0.244236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.026161, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.105766, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.103702, "worst_return": -0.181834, "sufficient": false 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101.311667, "fair_value": 123.178289, "relative_strength": -20.895303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.99015, "energy": 28.586423, "activity_lines": [ 97.074667, 98.136909, 97.30281, 97.69086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 95.470001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2918.6, "trend": 100.301333, "fair_value": 123.018482, "relative_strength": -21.57037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.892166, "energy": 23.562632, "activity_lines": [ 96.738667, 97.505454, 97.282619, 97.313979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 96.629997, "volume": 144, "typical_volume": 903.25, "trend": 99.676333, "fair_value": 122.878161, "relative_strength": -21.299587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.197407, "energy": 13.150196, "activity_lines": [ 96.947333, 97.156363, 97.295571, 97.077118 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 91.279999, "volume": 180, "typical_volume": 797.0, "trend": 98.596333, "fair_value": 122.705212, "relative_strength": -23.498323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.878866, "energy": 39.971535, "activity_lines": [ 95.052666, 95.904545, 96.792047, 96.535419 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 86.68, "volume": 265, "typical_volume": 762.1, "trend": 97.245667, "fair_value": 122.512905, "relative_strength": -25.296398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.599456, "energy": 74.479798, "activity_lines": [ 91.832666, 94.010545, 95.890762, 95.766624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }