{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae2af7e7-e31c-40db-a10b-24d077ae621e", "symbol": "RAM3S", "name": "SG ETC DAILY SHORT -3X COPPER FUTURE", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.065, "architecture_energy": 59.8, "architecture_maturity": 74.585, "architecture_confidence": 90.105, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.01, "rotation_up": 29.16, "upward_expansion": 13.74, "deceleration": 49.83, "rotation_down": 45.64, "downward_expansion": 71.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.332333, 2.368409, 2.425764, 2.610941 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.975, "trend_reference": 2.80875, "distance_from_trend": -0.29684, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.616101, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.873528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.27399, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.388734, "excess_performance": -0.559626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.29684, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.873528, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007518, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.60274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03464, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.388734, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.820506, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2500, "relative_activity": 6.011783, "balance": 0.820506, "dry_up": 1.502946, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083318, "annualized_volatility": 0.782127, "from_high_reference": -0.771835, "from_low_reference": 0.035767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.80875, "fair_value_reference": 15.616101, "structural_low": 1.9068, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.044016, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.101493, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.589423, "worst_return": -0.436698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.208975, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.271806, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.170035, "worst_return": -0.4526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.426632, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.532411, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.068822, "worst_return": -0.481375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.068822, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189163, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.71816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 16.758416, "relative_strength": -64.014642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.419096, "energy": 83.029136, "activity_lines": [ 2.132633, 2.261609, 2.68245, 2.884328 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.514, "volume": 1694, "typical_volume": 1368.9, "trend": 3.186717, "fair_value": 16.579563, "relative_strength": -54.123443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.000082, "energy": 65.292706, "activity_lines": [ 2.2463, 2.268282, 2.645069, 2.83397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.511, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 843.9, "trend": 3.078783, "fair_value": 16.395627, "relative_strength": -54.194968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.253211, "energy": 52.181502, "activity_lines": [ 2.3455, 2.2971, 2.610817, 2.790375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.511, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 843.4, "trend": 3.009067, "fair_value": 16.240409, "relative_strength": -53.252872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.300532, "energy": 37.030152, "activity_lines": [ 2.428033, 2.330045, 2.578788, 2.753744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.511, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 443.4, "trend": 2.952233, "fair_value": 16.085191, "relative_strength": -51.819081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.567259, "energy": 31.562406, "activity_lines": [ 2.483267, 2.370018, 2.549788, 2.721611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.511, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 441.15, "trend": 2.900533, "fair_value": 15.929973, "relative_strength": -51.079294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.82777, "energy": 34.859526, "activity_lines": [ 2.5112, 2.408136, 2.522431, 2.693144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.511, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 366.15, "trend": 2.859617, "fair_value": 15.774755, "relative_strength": -49.784169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.506639, "energy": 29.518241, "activity_lines": [ 2.511, 2.438809, 2.498179, 2.668013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.975, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 415.85, "trend": 2.80875, "fair_value": 15.616101, "relative_strength": -60.27399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.065332, "energy": 59.800496, "activity_lines": [ 2.332333, 2.368409, 2.425764, 2.610941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }