{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae2bfb6c-eb83-49fd-8ea1-3dcf5ed563a3", "symbol": "ALDEL", "name": "Delfingen Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.118, "architecture_energy": 8.647, "architecture_maturity": 27.216, "architecture_confidence": 42.548, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.49, "rotation_up": 18.4, "upward_expansion": 23.63, "deceleration": 69.57, "rotation_down": 37.59, "downward_expansion": 25.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.613333, 29.828139, 29.521926, 29.366273 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.700001, "trend_reference": 29.790041, "distance_from_trend": -0.003022, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.919906, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.00735, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.300402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141618, "excess_performance": -0.19493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046034, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.00735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099643, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.933688, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1629, "relative_activity": 0.342432, "balance": 1.933688, "dry_up": 0.552011, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03224, "annualized_volatility": 0.325028, "from_high_reference": -0.236504, "from_low_reference": 0.207317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.790041, "fair_value_reference": 29.919906, "structural_low": 24.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.00424, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.019273, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.3625, "worst_return": -0.274194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024554, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.050348, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.271642, "worst_return": -0.163423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043225, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.038787, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.705882, "worst_return": -0.257634, "sufficient": true 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"2026-06-26", "close": 30.542797, "volume": 154, "typical_volume": 7075.75, "trend": 30.976708, "fair_value": 30.633596, "relative_strength": -3.424298, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.381292, "energy": 17.591051, "activity_lines": [ 30.120431, 29.369083, 29.001485, 29.628009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.200001, "volume": 270, "typical_volume": 6720.2, "trend": 30.750041, "fair_value": 30.524601, "relative_strength": -6.159438, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.44629, "energy": 30.913978, "activity_lines": [ 30.289844, 29.572698, 29.125765, 29.577899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.0, "volume": 1848, "typical_volume": 6534.4, "trend": 30.513374, "fair_value": 30.409541, "relative_strength": -5.06112, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.350738, "energy": 32.960058, "activity_lines": [ 30.251541, 29.73813, 29.244807, 29.529509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.9, "volume": 1724, "typical_volume": 5980.3, "trend": 30.303374, "fair_value": 30.287859, "relative_strength": -5.709106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.707108, "energy": 24.284549, "activity_lines": [ 30.108922, 29.864303, 29.359087, 29.489936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.299999, "volume": 3086, "typical_volume": 5676.55, "trend": 30.146708, "fair_value": 30.158743, "relative_strength": -8.131815, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.782299, "energy": 13.111953, "activity_lines": [ 29.802853, 29.848371, 29.410509, 29.425203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.5, "volume": 4065, "typical_volume": 4966.8, "trend": 29.966708, "fair_value": 30.042869, "relative_strength": -8.934388, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.578924, "energy": 10.460181, "activity_lines": [ 29.64, 29.834663, 29.465265, 29.38348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.700001, "volume": 1629, "typical_volume": 4757.15, "trend": 29.790041, "fair_value": 29.919906, "relative_strength": -10.300402, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.118207, "energy": 8.646532, "activity_lines": [ 29.613333, 29.828139, 29.521926, 29.366273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }