{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae2d118c-f578-44b2-b065-ab5888ad5107", "symbol": "HPK", "name": "Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.759, "architecture_energy": 25.519, "architecture_maturity": 24.973, "architecture_confidence": 58.565, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.9, "rotation_up": 41.09, "upward_expansion": 70.69, "deceleration": 65.24, "rotation_down": 20.14, "downward_expansion": 2.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.286, 7.211364, 7.109595, 6.856914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.2, "trend_reference": 6.361667, "distance_from_trend": 0.131779, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.142951, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.353852, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.262211, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.503132, "excess_performance": 0.315678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131779, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.353852, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145268, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.503132, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.611021, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2109072, "relative_activity": 0.588425, "balance": 1.611021, "dry_up": 0.603373, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161019, "annualized_volatility": 0.632253, "from_high_reference": -0.188254, "from_low_reference": 0.87013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.361667, "fair_value_reference": 11.142951, "structural_low": 4.37, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.096928, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.128651, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.298969, "worst_return": -0.29251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003695, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.127868, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.237113, "worst_return": -0.526358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.171462, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.321319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.079063, "worst_return": -0.263861, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104665, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179972, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.560195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136439, 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"energy": 21.144694, "activity_lines": [ 7.030667, 7.134545, 6.864643, 6.469204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.01, "volume": 2561263, "typical_volume": 4418088.9, "trend": 5.961833, "fair_value": 11.30029, "relative_strength": -6.862463, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.694637, "energy": 16.938403, "activity_lines": [ 6.962, 7.124545, 6.906095, 6.541333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.365, "volume": 2102974, "typical_volume": 4398200.1, "trend": 6.065667, "fair_value": 11.26714, "relative_strength": 2.884865, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.253284, "energy": 17.586718, "activity_lines": [ 7.048333, 7.173455, 6.973214, 6.63186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.65, "volume": 2105602, "typical_volume": 4102134.8, "trend": 6.178333, "fair_value": 11.230848, "relative_strength": 9.685168, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.747332, "energy": 26.783888, "activity_lines": [ 7.262, 7.246091, 7.057214, 6.734075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.15, "volume": 2332949, "typical_volume": 3777879.1, "trend": 6.267667, "fair_value": 11.186756, "relative_strength": 3.061518, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.720297, "energy": 24.933908, "activity_lines": [ 7.277667, 7.217818, 7.083738, 6.796763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.2, "volume": 2109072, "typical_volume": 3584265.05, "trend": 6.361667, "fair_value": 11.142951, "relative_strength": -0.262211, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.758772, "energy": 25.518577, "activity_lines": [ 7.286, 7.211364, 7.109595, 6.856914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }