{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae2dbf03-0ba0-4273-9f86-216d5811974d", "symbol": "00700", "name": "Fubon Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.468, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.93, "architecture_energy": 29.781, "architecture_maturity": 96.287, "architecture_confidence": 75.84, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.35, "rotation_up": 63.94, "upward_expansion": 30.42, "deceleration": 38.44, "rotation_down": 14.73, "downward_expansion": 28.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.485333, 16.931455, 16.934143, 17.119032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.75, "trend_reference": 17.469, "distance_from_trend": 0.016086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.184103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168986, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.336507, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065789, "excess_performance": -0.445101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168986, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027292, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061837, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.09822, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3048439, "relative_activity": 2.013288, "balance": 1.09822, "dry_up": 1.907101, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043467, "annualized_volatility": 0.207181, "from_high_reference": -0.080311, "from_low_reference": 0.186497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.469, "fair_value_reference": 15.184103, "structural_low": 14.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.019959, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.019927, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.106366, "worst_return": -0.106173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.119848, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.08426, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.190883, "worst_return": -0.159151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.045444, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109033, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.040664, "worst_return": -0.182213, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094793, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023227, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061399, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 17.16, "volume": 2763232, "typical_volume": 1553380.05, "trend": 17.506667, "fair_value": 15.122372, "relative_strength": -31.379812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.231289, "energy": 22.277275, "activity_lines": [ 16.598, 16.456182, 16.775857, 17.071527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.99, "volume": 3390146, "typical_volume": 1520437.4, "trend": 17.497, "fair_value": 15.157115, "relative_strength": -26.341242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.120969, "energy": 19.399934, "activity_lines": [ 17.178667, 16.723273, 16.867143, 17.10271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.75, "volume": 3048439, "typical_volume": 1514159.25, "trend": 17.469, "fair_value": 15.184103, "relative_strength": -28.336507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.929775, "energy": 29.780818, "activity_lines": [ 17.485333, 16.931455, 16.934143, 17.119032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }