{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae37b6a2-4a1e-4169-92dc-1d0d42361475", "symbol": "NEM", "name": "Newmont Goldcorp Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.63, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.844, "architecture_energy": 18.765, "architecture_maturity": 37.355, "architecture_confidence": 77.006, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.6, "rotation_up": 26.39, "upward_expansion": 16.41, "deceleration": 41.5, "rotation_down": 36.28, "downward_expansion": 66.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.6, 98.174727, 101.781306, 104.754268 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 112.98, "trend_reference": 108.874653, "distance_from_trend": 0.037707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.994262, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.822427, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.506986, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015761, "excess_performance": -0.141386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011224, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.822427, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220012, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01507, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015761, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.213598, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38672482, "relative_activity": 0.982932, "balance": 1.213598, "dry_up": 0.964621, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088855, "annualized_volatility": 0.540821, "from_high_reference": -0.158494, "from_low_reference": 0.701622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.874653, "fair_value_reference": 61.994262, "structural_low": 88.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.013542, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009921, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.192243, "worst_return": -0.096888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.092519, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.049992, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.322892, "worst_return": -0.224757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.206758, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.213401, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.588508, "worst_return": -0.001178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 89.7, "volume": 41018060, "typical_volume": 43059914.8, "trend": 109.363176, "fair_value": 60.813077, "relative_strength": -15.191317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.121334, "energy": 69.016794, "activity_lines": [ 94.455333, 97.8101, 103.304164, 106.507032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 93.19, "volume": 40064722, "typical_volume": 42473477.4, "trend": 108.959737, "fair_value": 61.155845, "relative_strength": -11.644991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.519832, "energy": 62.96119, "activity_lines": [ 93.388667, 96.428721, 102.054573, 105.463601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 93.71, "volume": 32052876, "typical_volume": 41789589.5, "trend": 108.724933, "fair_value": 61.51125, "relative_strength": -12.407332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.778106, "energy": 57.990351, "activity_lines": [ 93.202, 95.425636, 100.963166, 104.479747 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.98, "volume": 38672482, "typical_volume": 39343998.95, "trend": 108.874653, "fair_value": 61.994262, "relative_strength": 1.506986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.844315, "energy": 18.764771, "activity_lines": [ 99.6, 98.174727, 101.781306, 104.754268 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }