{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae394c8b-87a6-4d6c-9782-917e5fd0750c", "symbol": "EDE", "name": "Eden Innovations Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.536, "architecture_energy": 83.451, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.921, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.82, "rotation_up": 8.68, "upward_expansion": 19.3, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 82.67, "downward_expansion": 97.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.099, 0.114909, 0.14431, 0.150228 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.088, "trend_reference": 0.150767, "distance_from_trend": -0.416317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.061716, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.565129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.393103, "excess_performance": -0.456809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.416317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213577, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.425894, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.551095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.062952, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.393103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.601136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5796308, "relative_activity": 0.588075, "balance": 0.601136, "dry_up": 0.405221, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.334353, "annualized_volatility": 1.190181, "from_high_reference": -0.68, "from_low_reference": 2.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.150767, "fair_value_reference": 0.061716, "structural_low": 0.085, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.35, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.727273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.161905, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.09, "volume": 634281, "typical_volume": 604839.7, "trend": 0.089, "fair_value": 0.335321, "relative_strength": -18.523867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.795875, "energy": 14.105151, "activity_lines": [ 0.075333, 0.070909, 0.076095, 0.082215 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", 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"energy": 34.416083, "activity_lines": [ 0.138, 0.157727, 0.168071, 0.162578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.105, "volume": 4292016, "typical_volume": 11490252.3, "trend": 0.1464, "fair_value": 0.06112, "relative_strength": 3.36919, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.031774, "energy": 56.60474, "activity_lines": [ 0.125, 0.144818, 0.162238, 0.160022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.105, "volume": 3753948, "typical_volume": 10408132.7, "trend": 0.148367, "fair_value": 0.061408, "relative_strength": 2.402515, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.709261, "energy": 64.544054, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.134, 0.156619, 0.157351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1, "volume": 2133838, "typical_volume": 10090236.7, "trend": 0.150033, "fair_value": 0.061664, "relative_strength": -6.025196, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.137002, "energy": 67.71349, "activity_lines": [ 0.108, 0.124455, 0.150929, 0.15423 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.088, "volume": 5796308, "typical_volume": 9856417.5, "trend": 0.150767, "fair_value": 0.061716, "relative_strength": -20.565129, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.536484, "energy": 83.450932, "activity_lines": [ 0.099, 0.114909, 0.14431, 0.150228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }