{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae438b0c-2b8a-4c3d-b0ec-723c820a441e", "symbol": "MUM", "name": "Mensch und Maschine Software SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.696, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.208, "architecture_energy": 6.116, "architecture_maturity": 23.813, "architecture_confidence": 46.003, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.89, "rotation_up": 25.38, "upward_expansion": 30.75, "deceleration": 51.26, "rotation_down": 34.47, "downward_expansion": 48.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.18, 36.030909, 36.167993, 36.009291 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.5, "trend_reference": 36.420649, "distance_from_trend": 0.002179, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.270191, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.19373, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.614565, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098395, "excess_performance": -0.163035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002179, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.19373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016914, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020024, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098395, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.592098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49828, "relative_activity": 0.718053, "balance": 1.592098, "dry_up": 1.024098, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061638, "annualized_volatility": 0.316671, "from_high_reference": -0.25648, "from_low_reference": 0.167585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.420649, "fair_value_reference": 45.270191, "structural_low": 31.261095, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.021331, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.132109, "worst_return": -0.12999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015752, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036454, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.122807, "worst_return": -0.138042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007663, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004573, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206999, "worst_return": -0.094703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027726, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096591, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": 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35.513334, 35.801818, 35.918161, 35.985204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.2, "volume": 102574, "typical_volume": 76974.2, "trend": 36.589686, "fair_value": 45.34514, "relative_strength": -10.238132, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.869528, "energy": 3.977574, "activity_lines": [ 36.016667, 35.984546, 36.085484, 36.015077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.5, "volume": 49828, "typical_volume": 69393.25, "trend": 36.420649, "fair_value": 45.270191, "relative_strength": -13.614565, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.208082, "energy": 6.11593, "activity_lines": [ 36.18, 36.030909, 36.167993, 36.009291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }