{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae45930d-1c06-4bd2-b8c8-ba8749f94f0a", "symbol": "WGB", "name": "WAM Global Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.933, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.344, "architecture_energy": 12.68, "architecture_maturity": 8.148, "architecture_confidence": 55.089, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.07, "rotation_up": 36.33, "upward_expansion": 37.75, "deceleration": 28.22, "rotation_down": 22.88, "downward_expansion": 43.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.204, 2.194364, 2.184257, 2.18434 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.21, "trend_reference": 2.205925, "distance_from_trend": 0.001847, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.071195, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.759362, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047624, "excess_performance": -0.111329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025657, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020171, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047624, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.573045, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1142603, "relative_activity": 1.112468, "balance": 1.573045, "dry_up": 1.232894, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024713, "annualized_volatility": 0.1837, "from_high_reference": -0.115168, "from_low_reference": 0.094317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.205925, "fair_value_reference": 2.071195, "structural_low": 2.019524, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.004587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00553, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.046083, "worst_return": -0.100251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002452, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.065367, "worst_return": -0.049668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000341, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04113, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.118636, "worst_return": -0.076895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017621, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054546, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054852, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004545, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.638312, "volume": 1038301, "typical_volume": 1035901.35, "trend": 1.543058, "fair_value": 1.68551, "relative_strength": 8.189838, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.794017, 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2.18442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.21, "volume": 1142603, "typical_volume": 1027088.1, "trend": 2.205925, "fair_value": 2.071195, "relative_strength": -7.759362, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.344493, "energy": 12.679586, "activity_lines": [ 2.204, 2.194364, 2.184257, 2.18434 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }