{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae485900-5d32-47a5-a3e2-72d1f25aeb19", "symbol": "SPOG", "name": "iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.018, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.308, "architecture_energy": 15.011, "architecture_maturity": 23.716, "architecture_confidence": 66.171, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.78, "rotation_up": 49.69, "upward_expansion": 31.97, "deceleration": 46.39, "rotation_down": 23.15, "downward_expansion": 25.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2489.533333, 2445.290909, 2469.690476, 2483.852151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2443.0, "trend_reference": 2448.241667, "distance_from_trend": -0.002141, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2115.639423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154734, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.752816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117311, "excess_performance": 0.066075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062006, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007528, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117311, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.037151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112698, "relative_activity": 0.35566, "balance": 1.037151, "dry_up": 0.594183, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054709, "annualized_volatility": 0.325543, "from_high_reference": -0.157586, "from_low_reference": 0.346376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2448.241667, "fair_value_reference": 2115.639423, "structural_low": 2182.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012342, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.287907, "worst_return": -0.08236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02214, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.053692, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.323368, "worst_return": -0.137348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.035807, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.038255, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.612326, "worst_return": -0.109957, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2584.0, "volume": 268723, "typical_volume": 404385.8, "trend": 2413.358333, "fair_value": 2110.565705, "relative_strength": 8.570534, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.510341, "energy": 18.080371, "activity_lines": [ 2436.566667, 2426.381818, 2475.842857, 2474.55 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2547.0, "volume": 153443, "typical_volume": 357693.35, "trend": 2432.458333, "fair_value": 2113.532051, "relative_strength": 5.511212, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.27997, "energy": 19.607404, "activity_lines": [ 2486.9, 2444.645455, 2477.590476, 2483.172043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2443.0, "volume": 112698, "typical_volume": 316870.0, "trend": 2448.241667, "fair_value": 2115.639423, "relative_strength": 0.752816, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.307809, "energy": 15.010753, "activity_lines": [ 2489.533333, 2445.290909, 2469.690476, 2483.852151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }