{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae51ac3b-aabd-40c4-aaf5-ffba810ae9e3", "symbol": "601636", "name": "Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.917, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.695, "architecture_energy": 33.124, "architecture_maturity": 48.088, "architecture_confidence": 60.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.07, "rotation_up": 16.76, "upward_expansion": 18.44, "deceleration": 68.28, "rotation_down": 64.18, "downward_expansion": 41.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.972667, 6.633135, 6.69098, 6.641533 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.13, "trend_reference": 6.627323, "distance_from_trend": -0.075041, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.406705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.113352, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125535, "excess_performance": -0.082331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034833, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04319, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016551, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039297, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.107788, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 444968484, "relative_activity": 1.022355, "balance": 1.107788, "dry_up": 1.203773, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155653, "annualized_volatility": 0.582975, "from_high_reference": -0.332971, "from_low_reference": 0.150094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.627323, "fair_value_reference": 6.406705, "structural_low": 5.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.049679, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.060384, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.156607, "worst_return": -0.238806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.131919, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.098372, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091346, "worst_return": -0.265432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.145214, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.162583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043269, "worst_return": -0.284682, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 62.73193, "energy": 71.94041, "activity_lines": [ 7.897333, 7.508767, 6.967307, 6.832111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.18, "volume": 670664072, "typical_volume": 406262197.95, "trend": 6.645323, "fair_value": 6.445504, "relative_strength": -1.823925, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.344886, "energy": 29.158794, "activity_lines": [ 7.358667, 7.331424, 6.915785, 6.802262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.62, "volume": 550194684, "typical_volume": 416860890.4, "trend": 6.635323, "fair_value": 6.4325, "relative_strength": -11.652314, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.065978, "energy": 14.306378, "activity_lines": [ 6.655333, 7.051259, 6.817406, 6.736112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.66, "volume": 429886493, "typical_volume": 426537860.3, "trend": 6.620657, "fair_value": 6.41909, "relative_strength": -11.05695, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.707127, "energy": 31.611499, "activity_lines": [ 6.126667, 6.79041, 6.729074, 6.673188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.13, "volume": 444968484, "typical_volume": 435238730.25, "trend": 6.627323, "fair_value": 6.406705, "relative_strength": -6.113352, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.6952, "energy": 33.124365, "activity_lines": [ 5.972667, 6.633135, 6.69098, 6.641533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }