{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae53cbd3-f2bc-4480-b54d-c8b1f3137f3e", "symbol": "AXEE", "name": "iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.436, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.911, "architecture_energy": 27.791, "architecture_maturity": 66.167, "architecture_confidence": 86.175, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.82, "rotation_up": 18.25, "upward_expansion": 53.68, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 36.7, "downward_expansion": 19.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.507933, 8.658818, 8.634767, 8.386456 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.583, "trend_reference": 8.06232, "distance_from_trend": 0.064582, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.401243, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340833, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.984182, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.175947, "excess_performance": 0.059284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087608, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340833, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029842, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175947, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103074, "relative_activity": 6.632157, "balance": 0.929108, "dry_up": 2.971325, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036969, "annualized_volatility": 0.258927, "from_high_reference": -0.07789, "from_low_reference": 0.410355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.06232, "fair_value_reference": 6.401243, "structural_low": 6.799, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.137267, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.074385, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137267, "worst_return": 0.137267, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.280429, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.175755, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.280429, "worst_return": 0.280429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017064, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-09", "close": 4.9045, "volume": 38900, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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6.360655, "relative_strength": 3.691569, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.64966, "energy": 28.281479, "activity_lines": [ 8.627333, 8.779036, 8.598486, 8.322049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.4, "volume": 60416, "typical_volume": 11615.55, "trend": 8.017113, "fair_value": 6.380264, "relative_strength": 2.149758, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.397285, "energy": 28.2052, "activity_lines": [ 8.5196, 8.700073, 8.610809, 8.349947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.583, "volume": 103074, "typical_volume": 15541.55, "trend": 8.06232, "fair_value": 6.401243, "relative_strength": 2.984182, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.91115, "energy": 27.790553, "activity_lines": [ 8.507933, 8.658818, 8.634767, 8.386456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }