{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae5731bd-5768-4dc1-b587-ab5c7430bfb6", "symbol": "CTRE", "name": "CareTrust REIT Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.692, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.194, "architecture_energy": 59.569, "architecture_maturity": 9.828, "architecture_confidence": 75.242, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.36, "rotation_up": 65.77, "upward_expansion": 85.71, "deceleration": 46.22, "rotation_down": 11.65, "downward_expansion": 12.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.972667, 41.243877, 40.438677, 39.958103 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.22, "trend_reference": 39.337496, "distance_from_trend": 0.047855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.689799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.436748, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.53588, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07257, "excess_performance": -0.053055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047855, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.436748, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015359, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077805, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07257, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.972241, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9879540, "relative_activity": 0.809825, "balance": 0.972241, "dry_up": 0.858244, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058004, "annualized_volatility": 0.299755, "from_high_reference": -0.055021, "from_low_reference": 0.316301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.337496, "fair_value_reference": 28.689799, "structural_low": 35.274636, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.024234, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.000769, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.11678, "worst_return": -0.189894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.022648, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.025348, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.182058, "worst_return": -0.128678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03402, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.018047, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.322822, "worst_return": -0.115148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 40.22, "volume": 10524928, "typical_volume": 14068657.5, "trend": 38.509255, "fair_value": 28.07268, "relative_strength": -0.576239, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.873915, "energy": 32.943332, "activity_lines": [ 39.957674, 39.493732, 39.304, 39.065176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.88, "volume": 12688655, "typical_volume": 14223316.5, "trend": 38.751338, "fair_value": 28.228645, "relative_strength": 7.268344, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.775123, "energy": 57.399782, "activity_lines": [ 41.209567, 40.083706, 39.662021, 39.34716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.25, "volume": 11803448, "typical_volume": 14330103.65, "trend": 38.994317, "fair_value": 28.387948, "relative_strength": 8.430626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.423542, "energy": 72.602867, "activity_lines": [ 42.159276, 40.710438, 40.042482, 39.637396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.94, "volume": 7509300, "typical_volume": 14225641.45, "trend": 39.194728, "fair_value": 28.540613, "relative_strength": 3.798163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.668125, "energy": 66.112618, "activity_lines": [ 42.236, 41.053465, 40.280416, 39.82744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.22, "volume": 9879540, "typical_volume": 12199599.4, "trend": 39.337496, "fair_value": 28.689799, "relative_strength": -1.53588, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.193729, "energy": 59.569187, "activity_lines": [ 41.972667, 41.243877, 40.438677, 39.958103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }