{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae5d8ff5-9de9-46f5-b898-b2c65e68ad0e", "symbol": "CDX", "name": "SIMPLIFY HIGH YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.769, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.795, "architecture_energy": 56.025, "architecture_maturity": 43.268, "architecture_confidence": 90.445, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 16.99, "upward_expansion": 10.26, "deceleration": 43.42, "rotation_down": 64.03, "downward_expansion": 85.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.72818, 20.785739, 20.902803, 20.997836 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.81, "trend_reference": 21.145242, "distance_from_trend": -0.015854, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.070329, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.278573, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026512, "excess_performance": -0.152137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015854, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011804, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036854, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132786, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004819, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026512, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 616403, "relative_activity": 0.908736, "balance": 0.808184, "dry_up": 0.821053, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010832, "annualized_volatility": 0.044842, "from_high_reference": -0.047615, "from_low_reference": 0.019099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.145242, "fair_value_reference": 20.070329, "structural_low": 20.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000566, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034223, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.017842, "worst_return": -0.024477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.000199, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1541, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.000199, "worst_return": 0.000199, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"relative_strength": -11.089755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.40288, "energy": 66.486248, "activity_lines": [ 20.820005, 20.899588, 21.000361, 21.094124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.639245, "volume": 577686, "typical_volume": 701777.7, "trend": 21.196575, "fair_value": 20.022839, "relative_strength": -10.828143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.852326, "energy": 76.692155, "activity_lines": [ 20.74259, 20.844248, 20.95898, 21.056243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.65, "volume": 498953, "typical_volume": 674238.8, "trend": 21.168726, "fair_value": 20.046032, "relative_strength": -11.340684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.634264, "energy": 73.227931, "activity_lines": [ 20.700465, 20.79672, 20.922012, 21.02098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.81, "volume": 616403, "typical_volume": 678308.2, "trend": 21.145242, "fair_value": 20.070329, "relative_strength": -13.278573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.795372, "energy": 56.02498, "activity_lines": [ 20.72818, 20.785739, 20.902803, 20.997836 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }