{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae648edc-f5a7-48ca-9f1a-7bdff2313474", "symbol": "600149", "name": "Langfang Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.031, "architecture_energy": 52.019, "architecture_maturity": 36.527, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.22, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 8.56, "deceleration": 57.1, "rotation_down": 54.36, "downward_expansion": 81.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.594, 4.632364, 5.065524, 5.348473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.76, "trend_reference": 5.584667, "distance_from_trend": -0.147666, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.882692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.291768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11194, "excess_performance": -0.068736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038121, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025128, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329072, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11194, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.157013, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44495261, "relative_activity": 0.444726, "balance": 0.157013, "dry_up": 0.56638, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101002, "annualized_volatility": 0.600313, "from_high_reference": -0.37859, "from_low_reference": 0.149758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.584667, "fair_value_reference": 4.882692, "structural_low": 4.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.02861, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.030291, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.318612, "worst_return": -0.159806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.100901, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.124135, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.464396, "worst_return": -0.223558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.062366, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.20751, "worst_return": -0.223684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 4.53, "volume": 54358502, "typical_volume": 126128474.7, "trend": 5.637667, "fair_value": 4.905449, "relative_strength": -14.962207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.820668, "energy": 83.206136, "activity_lines": [ 4.612667, 4.867455, 5.360571, 5.551548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.31, "volume": 75591802, "typical_volume": 113331009.2, "trend": 5.607667, "fair_value": 4.895449, "relative_strength": -19.629529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.84792, "energy": 82.436455, "activity_lines": [ 4.505333, 4.710364, 5.226524, 5.465892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.62, "volume": 52221900, "typical_volume": 104345179.65, "trend": 5.592333, "fair_value": 4.888718, "relative_strength": -13.852376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.148467, "energy": 62.118269, "activity_lines": [ 4.531333, 4.646182, 5.135429, 5.402172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.76, "volume": 44495261, "typical_volume": 100051026.35, "trend": 5.584667, "fair_value": 4.882692, "relative_strength": -13.291768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.031256, "energy": 52.018971, "activity_lines": [ 4.594, 4.632364, 5.065524, 5.348473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }