{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae65e54f-68fd-49d4-bb5e-0f45bbfd0c6e", "symbol": "RCEL", "name": "Avita Medical Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 68.647, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.617, "architecture_energy": 73.247, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.353, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.88, "rotation_up": 72.19, "upward_expansion": 85.56, "deceleration": 47.69, "rotation_down": 14.47, "downward_expansion": 19.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.636, 5.080909, 4.741381, 4.626774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.77, "trend_reference": 4.498667, "distance_from_trend": 0.727178, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.582051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094622, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 55.162116, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.992308, "excess_performance": 0.804854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.727178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091644, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094622, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.47631, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.551621, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.816452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.992308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.725419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8031644, "relative_activity": 4.918491, "balance": 1.725419, "dry_up": 1.786154, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141269, "annualized_volatility": 1.15191, "from_high_reference": -0.037175, "from_low_reference": 1.413043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.498667, "fair_value_reference": 8.582051, "structural_low": 3.52, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.045129, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.035485, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.511853, "worst_return": -0.309118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.116505, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.189733, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.069666, "worst_return": -0.465849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.142814, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.210943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.984035, "worst_return": -0.483946, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.05794, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.176474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.63135, "worst_return": -0.51547, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091358, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046784, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063771, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052023, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123272, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.33253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.227626, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007752, "active": false 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"typical_volume": 1291512.1, "trend": 4.353, "fair_value": 8.650513, "relative_strength": -6.799949, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.293676, "energy": 27.629871, "activity_lines": [ 4.594667, 4.461455, 4.417619, 4.406323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.77, "volume": 8031644, "typical_volume": 1632948.95, "trend": 4.498667, "fair_value": 8.582051, "relative_strength": 55.162116, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.617089, "energy": 73.246755, "activity_lines": [ 5.636, 5.080909, 4.741381, 4.626774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }