{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae7251c7-7284-485e-bef1-b2a124affbd7", "symbol": "SAPR11", "name": "Companhia de Saneamento do Paran\u00e1 - SANEPAR", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.239, "architecture_energy": 75.632, "architecture_maturity": 27.902, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 19.39, "upward_expansion": 16.31, "deceleration": 38.39, "rotation_down": 67.33, "downward_expansion": 91.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.761333, 36.435454, 37.604286, 38.970086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.040001, "trend_reference": 40.901666, "distance_from_trend": -0.16776, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.066485, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.357329, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258872, "excess_performance": -0.201824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006384, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258872, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.352451, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4895600, "relative_activity": 0.865653, "balance": 0.352451, "dry_up": 0.734892, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061444, "annualized_volatility": 0.36823, "from_high_reference": -0.301314, "from_low_reference": 0.077569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.901666, "fair_value_reference": 30.066485, "structural_low": 33.990002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003708, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.004388, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.075959, "worst_return": -0.072519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000351, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049286, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.164056, "worst_return": -0.054735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007574, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.094314, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.403087, "worst_return": -0.086738, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 37.139999, "volume": 5205300, "typical_volume": 6946380.0, "trend": 41.438884, "fair_value": 29.742809, "relative_strength": -9.344175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.109392, "energy": 40.700185, "activity_lines": [ 37.331333, 37.416181, 38.799952, 40.089541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.389999, "volume": 3292600, "typical_volume": 6606805.0, "trend": 41.352333, "fair_value": 29.858617, "relative_strength": -11.009812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.250431, "energy": 47.000759, "activity_lines": [ 37.039333, 37.218181, 38.462476, 39.763806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.23, "volume": 3230900, "typical_volume": 6301200.0, "trend": 41.220333, "fair_value": 29.973287, "relative_strength": -13.001717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.530345, "energy": 50.090618, "activity_lines": [ 36.724666, 37.014181, 38.129952, 39.433333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.040001, "volume": 4895600, "typical_volume": 5655385.0, "trend": 40.901666, "fair_value": 30.066485, "relative_strength": -15.357329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.238597, "energy": 75.632255, "activity_lines": [ 35.761333, 36.435454, 37.604286, 38.970086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }