{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae728246-58f1-4a79-8434-bd7e50d39234", "symbol": "ORC", "name": "Orchid Island Capital Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.12, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.451, "architecture_energy": 38.323, "architecture_maturity": 21.304, "architecture_confidence": 90.356, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.14, "rotation_up": 18.25, "upward_expansion": 8.53, "deceleration": 41.55, "rotation_down": 49.39, "downward_expansion": 74.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.55207, 6.6053, 6.645653, 6.705801 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.56, "trend_reference": 6.842558, "distance_from_trend": -0.041294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.007282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092008, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.412278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.083122, "excess_performance": -0.208747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041294, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060044, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124123, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083122, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.356432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26223279, "relative_activity": 0.990834, "balance": 1.356432, "dry_up": 1.032587, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040613, "annualized_volatility": 0.157941, "from_high_reference": -0.166335, "from_low_reference": 0.108548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.842558, "fair_value_reference": 6.007282, "structural_low": 6.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.013211, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.000291, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.163469, "worst_return": -0.206121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022998, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.03818, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.14164, "worst_return": -0.234195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005004, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059352, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.117942, "worst_return": -0.162263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -10.404065, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.908396, "energy": 22.745668, "activity_lines": [ 6.645714, 6.641955, 6.678965, 6.749547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.49, "volume": 32960395, "typical_volume": 27239239.5, "trend": 6.858459, "fair_value": 6.003021, "relative_strength": -10.511916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.865274, "energy": 35.899806, "activity_lines": [ 6.578634, 6.616559, 6.658005, 6.725057 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.56, "volume": 26223279, "typical_volume": 26465877.05, "trend": 6.842558, "fair_value": 6.007282, "relative_strength": -12.412278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.451407, "energy": 38.323133, "activity_lines": [ 6.55207, 6.6053, 6.645653, 6.705801 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }