{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae754649-b7dd-490b-bb4f-73443df727e4", "symbol": "9151", "name": "Premia China STAR50 ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.068, "architecture_energy": 27.66, "architecture_maturity": 64.922, "architecture_confidence": 94.36, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.59, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 57.88, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 38.91, "downward_expansion": 21.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.567733, 1.629455, 1.585895, 1.510383 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.57, "trend_reference": 1.428533, "distance_from_trend": 0.099029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.946583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.658597, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.61017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.251994, "excess_performance": 0.285575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099029, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120125, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.658597, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002651, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.186102, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.251994, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.330801, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29800, "relative_activity": 0.189996, "balance": 1.330801, "dry_up": 2.039265, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098089, "annualized_volatility": 0.458735, "from_high_reference": -0.211055, "from_low_reference": 0.762065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.428533, "fair_value_reference": 0.946583, "structural_low": 1.108, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0856, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.002783, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.104096, "worst_return": -0.030912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072682, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.099368, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.479452, "worst_return": -0.127137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06391, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287415, "worst_return": -0.109051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.702133, "energy": 73.773776, "activity_lines": [ 1.594667, 1.545636, 1.428048, 1.379785 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.814, "volume": 170000, "typical_volume": 91595.75, "trend": 1.338533, "fair_value": 0.916436, "relative_strength": 66.734841, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.791563, "energy": 77.087331, "activity_lines": [ 1.671467, 1.605127, 1.4714, 1.411897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.778, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 91495.75, "trend": 1.359467, "fair_value": 0.922282, "relative_strength": 56.123226, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.408698, "energy": 86.965108, "activity_lines": [ 1.722267, 1.648218, 1.508657, 1.440249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.866, "volume": 349000, "typical_volume": 106575.75, "trend": 1.3826, "fair_value": 0.928596, "relative_strength": 55.679094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.895632, "energy": 91.363787, "activity_lines": [ 1.789467, 1.698618, 1.552048, 1.472929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.536, "volume": 907800, "typical_volume": 145535.75, "trend": 1.395667, "fair_value": 0.933013, "relative_strength": 24.777746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.748852, "energy": 60.643249, "activity_lines": [ 1.722267, 1.680509, 1.561362, 1.482826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.6, "volume": 239200, "typical_volume": 150275.75, "trend": 1.409867, "fair_value": 0.937808, "relative_strength": 26.494775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.589409, "energy": 45.230829, "activity_lines": [ 1.674133, 1.672764, 1.57579, 1.496009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.482, "volume": 102600, "typical_volume": 155405.75, "trend": 1.419333, "fair_value": 0.941795, "relative_strength": 12.084387, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.003811, "energy": 21.074452, "activity_lines": [ 1.5952, 1.642, 1.577286, 1.500662 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.57, "volume": 29800, "typical_volume": 156845.75, "trend": 1.428533, "fair_value": 0.946583, "relative_strength": 18.61017, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.068243, "energy": 27.659965, "activity_lines": [ 1.567733, 1.629455, 1.585895, 1.510383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }