{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae7b08d5-553b-4caa-82dc-d7813ea90ade", "symbol": "SPX2S", "name": "Amundi MSCI USA Daily (-1x) Inverse ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.325, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.17, "architecture_energy": 23.04, "architecture_maturity": 75.51, "architecture_confidence": 61.925, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.94, "rotation_up": 42.58, "upward_expansion": 39.59, "deceleration": 43.81, "rotation_down": 22.25, "downward_expansion": 38.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.788933, 4.751709, 4.712288, 4.765462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.6145, "trend_reference": 4.816083, "distance_from_trend": -0.041856, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.02921, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.234643, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.474079, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047673, "excess_performance": -0.218565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041856, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.234643, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041892, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013102, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047673, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.584335, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 492894, "relative_activity": 0.483379, "balance": 2.584335, "dry_up": 1.657469, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034932, "annualized_volatility": 0.194393, "from_high_reference": -0.189557, "from_low_reference": 0.020794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.816083, "fair_value_reference": 6.02921, "structural_low": 4.5205, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.007777, "positive_rate": 0.452381, "directional_follow_through": 0.547619, "median_excess_return": -0.026326, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.122947, "worst_return": -0.119188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.022854, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.054516, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.238676, "worst_return": -0.174346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.073002, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.1855, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.439714, "worst_return": -0.251796, 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.679515, "energy": 25.605246, "activity_lines": [ 4.658867, 4.629891, 4.703967, 4.764995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.8475, "volume": 907059, "typical_volume": 747592.3, "trend": 4.818767, "fair_value": 6.088851, "relative_strength": -14.055155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.174539, "energy": 21.966951, "activity_lines": [ 4.726933, 4.672582, 4.707748, 4.766784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.9115, "volume": 5145189, "typical_volume": 1001407.4, "trend": 4.822033, "fair_value": 6.07122, "relative_strength": -12.318041, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.19714, "energy": 22.447388, "activity_lines": [ 4.8, 4.722118, 4.717674, 4.772767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.918, "volume": 215243, "typical_volume": 1000275.75, "trend": 4.823683, "fair_value": 6.052226, "relative_strength": -12.22847, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.091672, "energy": 33.78476, "activity_lines": [ 4.850833, 4.7675, 4.72875, 4.778958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.6145, "volume": 492894, "typical_volume": 1019685.25, "trend": 4.816083, "fair_value": 6.02921, "relative_strength": -19.474079, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.169864, "energy": 23.040194, "activity_lines": [ 4.788933, 4.751709, 4.712288, 4.765462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }