{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae810b49-6ce7-435e-85f9-b3a73d6663c9", "symbol": "603112", "name": "Shanxi Huaxiang Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.802, "architecture_energy": 81.172, "architecture_maturity": 17.212, "architecture_confidence": 83.062, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.8, "rotation_up": 8.68, "upward_expansion": 19.42, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 78.52, "downward_expansion": 95.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.549333, 15.494182, 17.385023, 17.748963 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.04, "trend_reference": 18.015144, "distance_from_trend": -0.165147, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.940992, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.078833, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.085437, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100019, "excess_performance": -0.056815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165147, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017346, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.078833, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.588973, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24019557, "relative_activity": 0.613334, "balance": 0.783273, "dry_up": 0.800607, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116139, "annualized_volatility": 0.444526, "from_high_reference": -0.372025, "from_low_reference": 0.164988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.015144, "fair_value_reference": 13.940992, "structural_low": 12.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035028, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.032314, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.151362, "worst_return": -0.09401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.124245, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.047108, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.45279, "worst_return": -0.133594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.12521, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.107673, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.325126, "worst_return": -0.167188, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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41062018.7, "trend": 18.443638, "fair_value": 13.848001, "relative_strength": -11.749385, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.595335, "energy": 53.033879, "activity_lines": [ 17.029333, 18.362934, 19.010111, 18.766032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.13, "volume": 30982671, "typical_volume": 41280187.35, "trend": 18.30938, "fair_value": 13.870052, "relative_strength": -16.542587, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.332089, "energy": 70.783988, "activity_lines": [ 15.934667, 17.390382, 18.563032, 18.487733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.55, "volume": 34668751, "typical_volume": 40702530.95, "trend": 18.184186, "fair_value": 13.888025, "relative_strength": -20.510072, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.6807, "energy": 88.223002, "activity_lines": [ 14.922, 16.459091, 18.074281, 18.180676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.54, "volume": 35743346, "typical_volume": 40377917.8, "trend": 18.087369, "fair_value": 13.912935, "relative_strength": -14.798962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.783031, "energy": 83.542472, "activity_lines": [ 14.569333, 15.862, 17.69954, 17.945567 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.04, "volume": 24019557, "typical_volume": 39162253.9, "trend": 18.015144, "fair_value": 13.940992, "relative_strength": -14.085437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.802389, "energy": 81.17217, "activity_lines": [ 14.549333, 15.494182, 17.385023, 17.748963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }