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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.278, "architecture_energy": 36.983, "architecture_maturity": 91.061, "architecture_confidence": 65.318, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.02, "rotation_up": 48.29, "upward_expansion": 67.76, "deceleration": 61.91, "rotation_down": 23.19, "downward_expansion": 15.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 270.926, 271.078727, 262.258808, 255.41083 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 276.89, "trend_reference": 247.434848, "distance_from_trend": 0.119042, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 200.653659, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37994, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.87145, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.12789, "excess_performance": 0.002265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119042, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087683, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.37994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113244, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058714, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.503657, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245600, "relative_activity": 1.322752, "balance": 1.503657, "dry_up": 0.900333, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062684, "annualized_volatility": 0.305395, "from_high_reference": -0.043327, "from_low_reference": 0.429307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 247.434848, "fair_value_reference": 200.653659, "structural_low": 202.674146, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 75.057845, "energy": 77.424297, "activity_lines": [ 275.978667, 268.614364, 257.145287, 250.618074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 273.94, "volume": 141337, "typical_volume": 202576.05, "trend": 244.065357, "fair_value": 199.216461, "relative_strength": 9.635769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.856007, "energy": 61.00732, "activity_lines": [ 276.277333, 270.992182, 259.531148, 252.683041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 255.0, "volume": 143503, "typical_volume": 190707.5, "trend": 245.543914, "fair_value": 199.878138, "relative_strength": 1.105562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.145614, "energy": 39.44011, "activity_lines": [ 269.291333, 269.125273, 259.893435, 253.388502 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 276.89, "volume": 245600, "typical_volume": 185673.5, "trend": 247.434848, "fair_value": 200.653659, "relative_strength": 5.87145, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.278245, "energy": 36.983456, "activity_lines": [ 270.926, 271.078727, 262.258808, 255.41083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }