{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae8c3d83-b4a5-4264-8e55-e0f25798893e", "symbol": "WELL", "name": "Harbor Health Care UCITS ETF - Accumulating", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.899, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.31, "architecture_energy": 50.785, "architecture_maturity": 50.407, "architecture_confidence": 50.111, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.15, "rotation_up": 49.03, "upward_expansion": 74.26, "deceleration": 71.23, "rotation_down": 26.32, "downward_expansion": 12.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.209067, 8.198927, 7.971317, 7.846938 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.3725, "trend_reference": 7.769683, "distance_from_trend": 0.077586, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.195562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163565, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.651751, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090453, "excess_performance": 0.039218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077586, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001293, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119797, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051696, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693084, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16333, "relative_activity": 0.755566, "balance": 0.693084, "dry_up": 1.421654, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030403, "annualized_volatility": 0.221186, "from_high_reference": -0.031745, "from_low_reference": 0.203724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.769683, "fair_value_reference": 7.195562, "structural_low": 6.967, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.004475, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.003032, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.054528, "worst_return": -0.095693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040647, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.065469, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.102655, "worst_return": -0.069418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046948, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.070997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075494, "worst_return": -0.190088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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25575, "typical_volume": 20043.25, "trend": 7.762833, "fair_value": 7.182747, "relative_strength": 1.055171, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.794507, "energy": 87.791765, "activity_lines": [ 8.3324, 8.095691, 7.836674, 7.769511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.181, "volume": 31491, "typical_volume": 19836.25, "trend": 7.7663, "fair_value": 7.185414, "relative_strength": -1.486166, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.148145, "energy": 86.520054, "activity_lines": [ 8.315433, 8.144291, 7.88589, 7.796489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.941, "volume": 49528, "typical_volume": 20845.6, "trend": 7.76525, "fair_value": 7.188087, "relative_strength": -5.445644, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.314624, "energy": 53.183114, "activity_lines": [ 8.1805, 8.135136, 7.909462, 7.80776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.3725, "volume": 16333, "typical_volume": 21616.9, "trend": 7.769683, "fair_value": 7.195562, "relative_strength": -0.651751, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.309864, "energy": 50.784515, "activity_lines": [ 8.209067, 8.198927, 7.971317, 7.846938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }