{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae8e2629-03f4-483d-a081-7b2625ddb6aa", "symbol": "PCTY", "name": "Paylocity Holding Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 79.715, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.489, "architecture_energy": 88.733, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.911, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.28, "rotation_up": 86.94, "upward_expansion": 97.21, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.2, "downward_expansion": 19.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.666, 126.829727, 118.950119, 116.031581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 150.42, "trend_reference": 115.6075, "distance_from_trend": 0.301127, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 161.288429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.924532, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.276368, "excess_performance": 0.088915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.301127, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067385, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.270292, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.371817, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.276368, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.802541, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5691513, "relative_activity": 1.488792, "balance": 1.802541, "dry_up": 1.01261, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080962, "annualized_volatility": 0.443036, "from_high_reference": -0.177269, "from_low_reference": 0.617593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.6075, "fair_value_reference": 161.288429, "structural_low": 92.99, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042047, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017709, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.233548, "worst_return": -0.13751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.285874, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.214099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.405469, "worst_return": -0.147509, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052903, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.265737, "worst_return": -0.31317, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066233, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075276, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": 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-2.511962, "energy": 3.673978, "activity_lines": [ 112.194, 111.335636, 109.492571, 111.28372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 126.0, "volume": 3219093, "typical_volume": 3737057.9, "trend": 116.812667, "fair_value": 162.701859, "relative_strength": -17.413211, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.735288, "energy": 36.038265, "activity_lines": [ 117.537333, 114.074545, 111.125619, 111.818731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 125.27, "volume": 2401444, "typical_volume": 3645827.95, "trend": 115.866667, "fair_value": 162.055897, "relative_strength": -15.449356, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.396447, "energy": 53.471957, "activity_lines": [ 121.493333, 116.407636, 112.596238, 112.364366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 137.895, "volume": 4172404, "typical_volume": 3697280.25, "trend": 115.6065, "fair_value": 161.617724, "relative_strength": -6.36962, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.735756, "energy": 69.39088, "activity_lines": [ 128.043667, 120.706182, 115.244619, 113.785548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.42, "volume": 5691513, "typical_volume": 3822906.55, "trend": 115.6075, "fair_value": 161.288429, "relative_strength": -1.924532, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.488809, "energy": 88.732943, "activity_lines": [ 136.666, 126.829727, 118.950119, 116.031581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }