{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae907db7-2905-41a2-bf1c-9d8c09d665cb", "symbol": "SNA", "name": "Snap-on Incorporated", "exchange": "BUE", "country": "AR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "benchmark": "^MERV", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.82, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.651, "architecture_energy": 28.315, "architecture_maturity": 48.918, "architecture_confidence": 74.507, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.72, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 44.43, "deceleration": 85.35, "rotation_down": 48.59, "downward_expansion": 38.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 99806.666667, 101456.268562, 102936.162904, 101247.823831 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 99850.0, "trend_reference": 98449.751291, "distance_from_trend": 0.014223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 71943.484448, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.387895, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.95511, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100887, "excess_performance": 0.17813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038073, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.387895, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.312892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109551, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068558, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100887, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.704433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1295, "relative_activity": 6.111373, "balance": 1.704433, "dry_up": 3.669184, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028835, "annualized_volatility": 0.211853, "from_high_reference": -0.112444, "from_low_reference": 0.272803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98449.751291, "fair_value_reference": 71943.484448, "structural_low": 88024.602916, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.022491, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.05428, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.134354, "worst_return": -0.081837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.112954, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.071182, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.142816, "worst_return": 0.056874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.170761, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.132069, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.418709, "worst_return": 0.079012, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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71544.251901, "relative_strength": 5.160717, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.422251, "energy": 25.204535, "activity_lines": [ 100201.666667, 102181.345915, 103090.31186, 101140.333776 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 99850.0, "volume": 1295, "typical_volume": 211.9, "trend": 98449.751291, "fair_value": 71943.484448, "relative_strength": 10.95511, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.650843, "energy": 28.314808, "activity_lines": [ 99806.666667, 101456.268562, 102936.162904, 101247.823831 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }