{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae926377-311a-4b1d-836c-55e091236c03", "symbol": "BKE", "name": "Buckle Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.721, "architecture_energy": 33.732, "architecture_maturity": 66.61, "architecture_confidence": 88.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.45, "rotation_up": 26.74, "upward_expansion": 16.97, "deceleration": 46.46, "rotation_down": 37.79, "downward_expansion": 66.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.957869, 43.522348, 45.494245, 47.033351 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.94, "trend_reference": 48.743466, "distance_from_trend": -0.057515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.256768, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.996103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112208, "excess_performance": -0.237833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054491, "read": "Falling" 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40.402889, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.040929, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.0148, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.18968, "worst_return": -0.121194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011541, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.371388, "worst_return": -0.15977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.314221, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.168624, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.546298, "worst_return": -0.153295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -24.962174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.910763, "energy": 78.132948, "activity_lines": [ 42.787582, 44.178742, 47.253114, 48.495086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.47, "volume": 2515639, "typical_volume": 2331861.35, "trend": 49.435702, "fair_value": 39.953327, "relative_strength": -23.074762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.519357, "energy": 73.085586, "activity_lines": [ 42.496554, 43.584644, 46.634865, 48.024178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.47, "volume": 2105666, "typical_volume": 2344719.0, "trend": 49.160262, "fair_value": 40.04597, "relative_strength": -22.32303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.141935, "energy": 65.414013, "activity_lines": [ 42.369277, 43.171273, 46.067696, 47.574778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.77, "volume": 2152466, "typical_volume": 2335683.6, "trend": 48.941858, "fair_value": 40.146848, "relative_strength": -20.488468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.089833, "energy": 49.153597, "activity_lines": [ 42.831148, 43.098992, 45.662927, 47.227019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.94, "volume": 2061808, "typical_volume": 2246721.15, "trend": 48.743466, "fair_value": 40.256768, "relative_strength": -18.996103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.720691, "energy": 33.731566, "activity_lines": [ 43.957869, 43.522348, 45.494245, 47.033351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }