{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "aea163a0-29af-4d08-bf44-fd953d42676a",
    "symbol": "MTF-F26",
    "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4D) S&P Consumer Staples",
    "exchange": "TLV",
    "country": "IL",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "TA35.TA",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -64.545,
    "architecture_energy": 67.337,
    "architecture_maturity": 93.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.468,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.37,
        "rotation_up": 29.93,
        "upward_expansion": 16.5,
        "deceleration": 61.0,
        "rotation_down": 50.7,
        "downward_expansion": 76.17
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        30.050667,
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        1466.989806
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 30.15,
    "trend_reference": 2081.504,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.985515,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 2954.116154,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989794,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -98.92853,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.98979,
    "excess_performance": -1.031077,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.985515,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.293375,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.989794,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.89986,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.989285,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.678921,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.98979,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.7224,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8980,
      "relative_activity": 0.918515,
      "balance": 1.7224,
      "dry_up": 0.713077,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 8.043271,
      "annualized_volatility": 6.3428,
      "from_high_reference": -0.99072,
      "from_low_reference": 0.056412
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2081.504,
      "fair_value_reference": 2954.116154,
      "structural_low": 28.54,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.01238,
        "positive_rate": 0.642857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.357143,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014952,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.111386,
        "worst_return": -0.054233,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.016883,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.074487,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.086674,
        "worst_return": -0.051901,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.05637,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.146403,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.158076,
        "worst_return": -0.037129,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.127148,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.139937,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.16875,
        "worst_return": -0.027537,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.019814,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023139,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.051755,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044864,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.031775,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030048,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021663,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.024823,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2026-03-27",
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        "return": -0.058861,
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
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      {
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
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      {
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      },
      {
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 11887,
        "typical_volume": 10857.0,
        "trend": 2369.185333,
        "fair_value": 3010.997179,
        "relative_strength": -99.039958,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -68.693316,
        "energy": 89.038772,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 29.95,
        "volume": 1662,
        "typical_volume": 10822.9,
        "trend": 2271.650333,
        "fair_value": 2991.682756,
        "relative_strength": -99.013933,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.324859,
        "energy": 80.399191,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.643333,
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          1750.076215
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 30.46,
        "volume": 5357,
        "typical_volume": 9660.4,
        "trend": 2176.799,
        "fair_value": 2972.954936,
        "relative_strength": -98.942959,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.959888,
        "energy": 68.002484,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.929333,
          180.678727,
          1081.862048,
          1605.48329
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 30.15,
        "volume": 8980,
        "typical_volume": 9776.65,
        "trend": 2081.504,
        "fair_value": 2954.116154,
        "relative_strength": -98.92853,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.544708,
        "energy": 67.336783,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.050667,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}