{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aea703ac-e821-4c9c-8adc-4e5de1cf4496", "symbol": "ITM", "name": "iTech Minerals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.028, "architecture_energy": 25.493, "architecture_maturity": 27.739, "architecture_confidence": 74.905, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.52, "rotation_up": 52.64, "upward_expansion": 30.59, "deceleration": 43.41, "rotation_down": 26.09, "downward_expansion": 28.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.040333, 0.037655, 0.037243, 0.03777 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.053, "trend_reference": 0.0401, "distance_from_trend": 0.321696, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.066256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200077, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.429156, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.204545, "excess_performance": 0.14084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.321696, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093444, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200077, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.304339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.124292, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175839, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.204545, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.588173, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20465049, "relative_activity": 10.077971, "balance": 4.588173, "dry_up": 2.756173, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.928314, "from_high_reference": -0.376471, "from_low_reference": 0.962963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0401, "fair_value_reference": 0.066256, "structural_low": 0.029, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.053571, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031949, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.056604, "worst_return": -0.31, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.203571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.188886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.107143, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.29, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.317388, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.25, "worst_return": -0.33, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099099, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.282609, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.719787, "energy": 37.496782, "activity_lines": [ 0.034467, 0.035182, 0.036195, 0.037858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.034, "volume": 136785, "typical_volume": 1355736.8, "trend": 0.0405, "fair_value": 0.068526, "relative_strength": -23.034451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.777648, "energy": 32.321906, "activity_lines": [ 0.034467, 0.034818, 0.035924, 0.037411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.033, "volume": 129892, "typical_volume": 1321208.65, "trend": 0.039933, "fair_value": 0.067327, "relative_strength": -27.091298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.919238, "energy": 31.662907, "activity_lines": [ 0.034133, 0.0344, 0.035614, 0.036927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.053, "volume": 20465049, "typical_volume": 2030671.65, "trend": 0.0401, "fair_value": 0.066256, "relative_strength": 12.429156, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.028264, "energy": 25.493071, "activity_lines": [ 0.040333, 0.037655, 0.037243, 0.03777 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }