{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aea882e6-fbff-48fc-8321-099368918492", "symbol": "AER", "name": "AerCap Holdings NV", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.106, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.234, "architecture_energy": 47.073, "architecture_maturity": 12.758, "architecture_confidence": 81.395, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.18, "rotation_up": 60.6, "upward_expansion": 83.84, "deceleration": 47.91, "rotation_down": 16.03, "downward_expansion": 8.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.660667, 149.095818, 146.033074, 144.428839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 151.72, "trend_reference": 143.203615, "distance_from_trend": 0.05947, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 104.462019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.452394, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.309728, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089096, "excess_performance": -0.036529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05947, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019881, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.452394, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089096, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.178491, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5588298, "relative_activity": 0.957128, "balance": 1.178491, "dry_up": 0.889341, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053435, "annualized_volatility": 0.26835, "from_high_reference": -0.044614, "from_low_reference": 0.394544 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 143.203615, "fair_value_reference": 104.462019, "structural_low": 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142.332206, 141.436519, 141.558276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 147.84, "volume": 5584092, "typical_volume": 6503739.5, "trend": 141.982449, "fair_value": 101.667131, "relative_strength": 0.942177, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.66081, "energy": 32.340686, "activity_lines": [ 145.770667, 143.459255, 142.044251, 141.954702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 149.87, "volume": 5187170, "typical_volume": 6472367.0, "trend": 142.352079, "fair_value": 102.226468, "relative_strength": 0.805261, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.633934, "energy": 52.685895, "activity_lines": [ 147.817333, 144.770932, 142.853755, 142.463576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 146.97, "volume": 3631951, "typical_volume": 6358888.15, "trend": 142.451325, "fair_value": 102.758508, "relative_strength": 0.220373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.12548, "energy": 53.296654, "activity_lines": [ 148.035333, 145.385818, 143.39029, 142.761506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.3, "volume": 4735760, "typical_volume": 6101597.15, "trend": 142.694904, "fair_value": 103.315861, "relative_strength": 3.494675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.028591, "energy": 54.150741, "activity_lines": [ 149.232, 146.835455, 144.348982, 143.332389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.9, "volume": 6814038, "typical_volume": 5929706.35, "trend": 142.930122, "fair_value": 103.881801, "relative_strength": 1.829817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.245626, "energy": 49.232099, "activity_lines": [ 149.879333, 148.002727, 145.195389, 143.86175 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 151.72, "volume": 5588298, "typical_volume": 5838608.1, "trend": 143.203615, "fair_value": 104.462019, "relative_strength": -1.309728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.234133, "energy": 47.073316, "activity_lines": [ 150.660667, 149.095818, 146.033074, 144.428839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }