{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aea9948b-1daa-4dfd-9f7b-510b3df576de", "symbol": "002529", "name": "Jiangxi Haiyuan Composites Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.061, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.558, "architecture_energy": 58.828, "architecture_maturity": 9.531, "architecture_confidence": 79.817, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.41, "rotation_up": 9.87, "upward_expansion": 11.6, "deceleration": 39.52, "rotation_down": 68.19, "downward_expansion": 84.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.547333, 6.766182, 7.172, 7.193634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.88, "trend_reference": 7.197667, "distance_from_trend": -0.044135, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.814295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.019618, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019259, "excess_performance": 0.01186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044135, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119562, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019437, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019259, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.960444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24004800, "relative_activity": 1.095522, "balance": 0.960444, "dry_up": 1.253659, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107223, "annualized_volatility": 0.369235, "from_high_reference": -0.248087, "from_low_reference": 0.23964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.197667, "fair_value_reference": 7.814295, "structural_low": 5.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01467, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035349, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.107739, "worst_return": -0.321171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072846, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.042386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094132, "worst_return": -0.250318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.114502, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.108402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055072, "worst_return": -0.226559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.152681, 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"relative_strength": -14.567009, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.726497, "energy": 25.976765, "activity_lines": [ 7.162, 7.471455, 7.50681, 7.390344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.35, "volume": 27262489, "typical_volume": 21145862.4, "trend": 7.233333, "fair_value": 7.978782, "relative_strength": -11.47697, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.334684, "energy": 41.223297, "activity_lines": [ 6.852667, 7.220545, 7.408524, 7.33271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.1, "volume": 34013375, "typical_volume": 22073744.9, "trend": 7.212667, "fair_value": 7.923013, "relative_strength": -14.885799, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.842779, "energy": 58.366102, "activity_lines": [ 6.529333, 6.950364, 7.289048, 7.259591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.51, "volume": 24598800, "typical_volume": 22345673.55, "trend": 7.199667, "fair_value": 7.8625, "relative_strength": -7.557023, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.012592, "energy": 59.189544, "activity_lines": [ 6.454667, 6.804909, 7.211762, 7.214258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.88, "volume": 24004800, "typical_volume": 21911754.75, "trend": 7.197667, "fair_value": 7.814295, "relative_strength": -7.019618, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.557588, "energy": 58.827546, "activity_lines": [ 6.547333, 6.766182, 7.172, 7.193634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }