{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aeae17cb-507a-46cc-9190-b30da603828d", "symbol": "601696", "name": "BOC International (China) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.992, "architecture_energy": 30.893, "architecture_maturity": 47.742, "architecture_confidence": 92.157, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.4, "rotation_up": 19.92, "upward_expansion": 4.91, "deceleration": 49.59, "rotation_down": 50.11, "downward_expansion": 73.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.717333, 11.858909, 11.898238, 12.157699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.99, "trend_reference": 12.645, "distance_from_trend": -0.051799, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.539827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.647825, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.11903, "excess_performance": -0.075826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051799, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048216, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11903, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.801327, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 174649703, "relative_activity": 0.994246, "balance": 0.801327, "dry_up": 1.197823, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077821, "annualized_volatility": 0.300181, "from_high_reference": -0.346737, "from_low_reference": 0.145177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.645, "fair_value_reference": 11.539827, "structural_low": 10.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.006314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002567, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.283632, "worst_return": -0.115846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.020641, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025776, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.355091, "worst_return": -0.133772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036935, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.058683, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.447507, "worst_return": -0.229519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.970667, 11.907818, 12.020762, 12.380925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.31, "volume": 227888807, "typical_volume": 180862121.6, "trend": 12.873333, "fair_value": 11.521428, "relative_strength": -14.01352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.882157, "energy": 35.941011, "activity_lines": [ 11.676667, 11.812, 11.931286, 12.27372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.83, "volume": 210410152, "typical_volume": 177041058.2, "trend": 12.745, "fair_value": 11.529734, "relative_strength": -9.925133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.790222, "energy": 35.80058, "activity_lines": [ 11.652, 11.822, 11.902952, 12.206409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.99, "volume": 174649703, "typical_volume": 175660509.65, "trend": 12.645, "fair_value": 11.539827, "relative_strength": -10.647825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.99212, "energy": 30.893196, "activity_lines": [ 11.717333, 11.858909, 11.898238, 12.157699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }