{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aeb54f75-76fd-4d51-a54f-83bed98a057f", "symbol": "MACF", "name": "Macfarlane Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.868, "architecture_energy": 64.318, "architecture_maturity": 27.917, "architecture_confidence": 68.219, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.13, "rotation_up": 68.27, "upward_expansion": 87.05, "deceleration": 45.16, "rotation_down": 15.81, "downward_expansion": 18.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.706267, 0.6884, 0.672485, 0.665459 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.73, "trend_reference": 0.664267, "distance_from_trend": 0.098956, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.935731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219861, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.623514, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042122, "excess_performance": -0.009114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098956, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004624, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219861, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10138, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186768, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042122, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.780155, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 751795, "relative_activity": 0.880909, "balance": 0.780155, "dry_up": 1.106395, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065464, "annualized_volatility": 0.279614, "from_high_reference": -0.231368, "from_low_reference": 0.272156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.664267, "fair_value_reference": 0.935731, "structural_low": 0.573829, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.008052, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.014665, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.124233, "worst_return": -0.14011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040039, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.032282, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.217822, "worst_return": -0.1375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.140357, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.16651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159306, "worst_return": -0.433475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.136831, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.267661, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.199559, "worst_return": -0.166934, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.10879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012001, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.059367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151515, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", 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after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.493002, "energy": 8.845133, "activity_lines": [ 0.663933, 0.663418, 0.654852, 0.656033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.67, "volume": 909115, "typical_volume": 888141.25, "trend": 0.66156, "fair_value": 0.939541, "relative_strength": -13.762592, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.683506, "energy": 8.451098, "activity_lines": [ 0.665533, 0.665, 0.6571, 0.656525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.733, "volume": 1046667, "typical_volume": 861187.6, "trend": 0.662963, "fair_value": 0.937446, "relative_strength": -5.876639, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.374212, "energy": 39.913463, "activity_lines": [ 0.6882, 0.677673, 0.665191, 0.661134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.73, "volume": 751795, "typical_volume": 853430.5, "trend": 0.664267, "fair_value": 0.935731, "relative_strength": -5.623514, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.867611, "energy": 64.31834, "activity_lines": [ 0.706267, 0.6884, 0.672485, 0.665459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }