{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aebc12ca-7575-447f-80a9-8b2952050f10", "symbol": "SES", "name": "SES AI Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.758, "architecture_energy": 85.502, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.769, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.55, "rotation_up": 9.22, "upward_expansion": 20.91, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 82.01, "downward_expansion": 98.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5712, 0.69748, 0.869475, 0.979169 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.5621, "trend_reference": 1.20568, "distance_from_trend": -0.53379, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.343009, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.581462, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -67.287524, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.701011, "excess_performance": -0.826636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.53379, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253939, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.581462, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.672875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.701011, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.988379, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101644631, "relative_activity": 1.775704, "balance": 0.988379, "dry_up": 1.737788, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.344382, "annualized_volatility": 0.920935, "from_high_reference": -0.849303, "from_low_reference": 0.14504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.20568, "fair_value_reference": 1.343009, "structural_low": 0.4909, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.053097, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.071589, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 4.008905, "worst_return": -0.462094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.26, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.240476, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.651412, "worst_return": -0.444865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.274989, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.413954, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.027027, "worst_return": -0.463462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.50343, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.167485, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.363534, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035398, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.462963, "active": 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[ 0.6699, 0.831618, 0.953838, 1.072656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5504, "volume": 124243459, "typical_volume": 53304152.45, "trend": 1.257943, "fair_value": 1.355047, "relative_strength": -67.146836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.801886, "energy": 88.987906, "activity_lines": [ 0.60696, 0.757398, 0.909505, 1.024062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5621, "volume": 101644631, "typical_volume": 57241865.45, "trend": 1.20568, "fair_value": 1.343009, "relative_strength": -67.287524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.757669, "energy": 85.501666, "activity_lines": [ 0.5712, 0.69748, 0.869475, 0.979169 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }