{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aebf8278-b729-4b1f-ac30-09e4a2cb88da", "symbol": "FIBRAHD15", "name": "Fideicomiso Irrevocable No. F/1523", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.057, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.465, "architecture_energy": 45.744, "architecture_maturity": 8.069, "architecture_confidence": 81.179, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.47, "rotation_up": 13.86, "upward_expansion": 8.0, "deceleration": 42.41, "rotation_down": 61.95, "downward_expansion": 83.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.229333, 2.251636, 2.298143, 2.305247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.26, "trend_reference": 2.32, "distance_from_trend": -0.025862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.205482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.102465, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.05042, "excess_performance": 0.004247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00543, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024719, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027884, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060423, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.091118, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29265, "relative_activity": 2.100718, "balance": 2.091118, "dry_up": 1.691091, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051736, "annualized_volatility": 0.22624, "from_high_reference": -0.156716, "from_low_reference": 0.051163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.32, "fair_value_reference": 2.205482, "structural_low": 2.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.002242, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001452, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.157894, "worst_return": -0.27234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.008, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.02715, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.282739, "worst_return": -0.197531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029851, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.079962, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.152461, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042918, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013575, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004219, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", 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2.343699 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 2.4, "volume": 386, "typical_volume": 15534.85, "trend": 2.342333, "fair_value": 2.18393, "relative_strength": -1.942014, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.242769, "energy": 45.17692, "activity_lines": [ 2.405333, 2.382182, 2.349381, 2.347763 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 2.44, "volume": 9444, "typical_volume": 15525.7, "trend": 2.348667, "fair_value": 2.187748, "relative_strength": 0.251652, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.029904, "energy": 45.989322, "activity_lines": [ 2.418, 2.394545, 2.359476, 2.354065 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.3, "volume": 435, "typical_volume": 15143.2, "trend": 2.348333, "fair_value": 2.19079, "relative_strength": -4.554001, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.301076, "energy": 18.603075, "activity_lines": [ 2.380667, 2.379273, 2.356048, 2.350925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.19, "volume": 7400, "typical_volume": 14343.85, "trend": 2.346, "fair_value": 2.193005, "relative_strength": -8.609834, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.186004, "energy": 16.320463, "activity_lines": [ 2.313333, 2.346, 2.342524, 2.34071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.23, "volume": 28820, "typical_volume": 15019.7, "trend": 2.341667, "fair_value": 2.195417, "relative_strength": -5.853451, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.719695, "energy": 31.349184, "activity_lines": [ 2.272667, 2.324727, 2.333333, 2.333226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.24, "volume": 28420, "typical_volume": 12895.05, "trend": 2.337333, "fair_value": 2.19771, "relative_strength": -5.320016, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.754449, "energy": 44.970838, "activity_lines": [ 2.248667, 2.305636, 2.325381, 2.326667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.21, "volume": 12030, "typical_volume": 11935.4, "trend": 2.334333, "fair_value": 2.199872, "relative_strength": -5.984723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.449424, "energy": 60.774163, "activity_lines": [ 2.225333, 2.281818, 2.314571, 2.318452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.2, "volume": 24519, "typical_volume": 12843.65, "trend": 2.330333, "fair_value": 2.202394, "relative_strength": -6.873364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.577257, "energy": 62.149685, "activity_lines": [ 2.214, 2.259455, 2.303429, 2.309785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.26, "volume": 29265, "typical_volume": 13930.95, "trend": 2.32, "fair_value": 2.205482, "relative_strength": -4.102465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.465031, "energy": 45.743634, "activity_lines": [ 2.229333, 2.251636, 2.298143, 2.305247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }