{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aec44372-c5f7-466a-99b6-33c95c6f1a9b", "symbol": "PVA", "name": "Pescanova, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.782, "architecture_energy": 28.09, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.009, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.66, "rotation_up": 24.56, "upward_expansion": 14.64, "deceleration": 63.25, "rotation_down": 41.31, "downward_expansion": 66.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.241133, 0.240927, 0.244705, 0.249398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.245, "trend_reference": 0.256233, "distance_from_trend": -0.04384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.307769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.531613, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.249431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051105, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203949, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64475, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199224, "relative_activity": 0.43381, "balance": 0.64475, "dry_up": 0.41505, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045526, "annualized_volatility": 0.160364, "from_high_reference": -0.224684, "from_low_reference": 0.065217 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.256233, "fair_value_reference": 0.307769, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.022801, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.027354, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.882075, "worst_return": -0.159544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.032895, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.068425, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.019512, "worst_return": -0.295652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.052018, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.122655, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.703704, "worst_return": -0.339674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.422154, "energy": 58.692352, "activity_lines": [ 0.239733, 0.242364, 0.248586, 0.254009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.242, "volume": 296270, "typical_volume": 516599.5, "trend": 0.2597, "fair_value": 0.310026, "relative_strength": -23.287123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.488025, "energy": 42.380666, "activity_lines": [ 0.240267, 0.241745, 0.247481, 0.252776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.239, "volume": 165548, "typical_volume": 493274.2, "trend": 0.258367, "fair_value": 0.309186, "relative_strength": -24.820662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.482688, "energy": 42.568431, "activity_lines": [ 0.239733, 0.240909, 0.246233, 0.251441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.239, "volume": 101392, "typical_volume": 482778.75, "trend": 0.2573, "fair_value": 0.308442, "relative_strength": -24.6848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.11649, "energy": 45.405672, "activity_lines": [ 0.239267, 0.240273, 0.245133, 0.250191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.245, "volume": 199224, "typical_volume": 459242.35, "trend": 0.256233, "fair_value": 0.307769, "relative_strength": -23.531613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.781765, "energy": 28.089727, "activity_lines": [ 0.241133, 0.240927, 0.244705, 0.249398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }