{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aec4ef5c-fea3-407e-b2dc-a5aad8a162c0", "symbol": "BINV", "name": "BioInvent International AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.399, "architecture_energy": 28.045, "architecture_maturity": 19.471, "architecture_confidence": 74.743, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.47, "rotation_up": 10.53, "upward_expansion": 8.39, "deceleration": 54.82, "rotation_down": 55.02, "downward_expansion": 67.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.84, 23.363636, 24.232143, 24.18957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.0, "trend_reference": 24.688333, "distance_from_trend": -0.068386, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.470769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192154, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.780476, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.115385, "excess_performance": -0.176879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192154, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017163, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060542, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.272426, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 706822, "relative_activity": 1.390067, "balance": 1.272426, "dry_up": 0.724133, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145084, "annualized_volatility": 0.589833, "from_high_reference": -0.423559, "from_low_reference": 0.19667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.688333, "fair_value_reference": 28.470769, "structural_low": 19.219999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.030904, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.039054, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.434625, "worst_return": -0.229814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.194783, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.104811, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 1.061091, "worst_return": -0.301961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.09441, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.120258, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.972191, "worst_return": -0.240924, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168712, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002744, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144628, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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28.966666, 26.401818, 24.965, 25.501613 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 197552, "typical_volume": 576164.1, "trend": 26.223333, "fair_value": 28.176603, "relative_strength": -25.19599, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.664155, "energy": 31.965469, "activity_lines": [ 27.913333, 26.275454, 24.886905, 25.358279 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 23.1, "volume": 660167, "typical_volume": 583126.65, "trend": 26.016667, "fair_value": 28.206218, "relative_strength": -29.064497, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.131759, "energy": 17.85895, "activity_lines": [ 26.42, 25.927273, 24.735, 25.156774 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 24.15, "volume": 53471, "typical_volume": 562854.25, "trend": 25.888333, "fair_value": 28.245385, "relative_strength": -24.351636, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.716655, "energy": 17.521081, "activity_lines": [ 25.27, 25.764545, 24.714047, 25.036344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 25.549999, "volume": 69748, "typical_volume": 536871.1, "trend": 25.778333, "fair_value": 28.295833, "relative_strength": -21.283601, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.815711, "energy": 19.667954, "activity_lines": [ 24.81, 25.823636, 24.835238, 25.014516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.0, "volume": 436232, "typical_volume": 536758.6, "trend": 25.598333, "fair_value": 28.328654, "relative_strength": -26.603699, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.810998, "energy": 31.482855, "activity_lines": [ 24.003333, 25.355454, 24.715476, 24.835269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.5, "volume": 311065, "typical_volume": 515605.0, "trend": 25.383333, "fair_value": 28.361987, "relative_strength": -26.371286, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.217979, "energy": 31.708519, "activity_lines": [ 23.503333, 24.777273, 24.567857, 24.635376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.6, "volume": 197889, "typical_volume": 503378.5, "trend": 25.145, "fair_value": 28.395833, "relative_strength": -25.988454, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.077569, "energy": 37.313264, "activity_lines": [ 23.15, 24.228182, 24.433333, 24.455806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.950001, "volume": 257055, "typical_volume": 500895.85, "trend": 24.931667, "fair_value": 28.429487, "relative_strength": -24.734388, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.37716, "energy": 36.095055, "activity_lines": [ 22.946667, 23.75, 24.332619, 24.314193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.0, "volume": 706822, "typical_volume": 508480.6, "trend": 24.688333, "fair_value": 28.470769, "relative_strength": -24.780476, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.399197, "energy": 28.044652, "activity_lines": [ 22.84, 23.363636, 24.232143, 24.18957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }