{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aec5dd31-6e42-45df-abfc-b9ffd5f5712a", "symbol": "PBT", "name": "Permian Basin Royalty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.486, "architecture_energy": 67.875, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.591, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.52, "rotation_up": 72.4, "upward_expansion": 85.88, "deceleration": 48.42, "rotation_down": 11.29, "downward_expansion": 12.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.928615, 28.302268, 27.277967, 25.778623 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.01, "trend_reference": 23.677148, "distance_from_trend": 0.351936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.400861, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.078455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 36.344673, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.744109, "excess_performance": 0.618484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.351936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157486, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.078455, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.529771, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.363447, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158887, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.744109, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.936581, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1451082, "relative_activity": 1.855338, "balance": 2.936581, "dry_up": 0.951365, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104086, "annualized_volatility": 0.453338, "from_high_reference": -0.096273, "from_low_reference": 1.198874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.677148, "fair_value_reference": 15.400861, "structural_low": 18.124045, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.024748, "positive_rate": 0.606061, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": 0.005042, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.427624, "worst_return": -0.224112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.163407, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.154782, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.898632, "worst_return": -0.209444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.34001, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.34494, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.208883, "worst_return": -0.169926, "sufficient": true }, { 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25.72969, 24.330562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.187056, "volume": 332361, "typical_volume": 725320.0, "trend": 22.789667, "fair_value": 15.282329, "relative_strength": 32.996617, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.190604, "energy": 43.919523, "activity_lines": [ 27.444024, 27.018851, 26.18544, 24.769811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.61, "volume": 804675, "typical_volume": 734883.85, "trend": 23.193739, "fair_value": 15.333844, "relative_strength": 31.888731, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.072623, "energy": 49.410598, "activity_lines": [ 28.463976, 27.430133, 26.639725, 25.209832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.01, "volume": 1451082, "typical_volume": 782111.85, "trend": 23.677148, "fair_value": 15.400861, "relative_strength": 36.344673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.485532, "energy": 67.874572, "activity_lines": [ 29.928615, 28.302268, 27.277967, 25.778623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }