{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aecb801c-e00c-499a-9bcb-3edc7ba93dd9", "symbol": "FLQA", "name": "Franklin FTSE Asia ex China ex Japan UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.394, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.07, "architecture_energy": 25.799, "architecture_maturity": 66.966, "architecture_confidence": 88.411, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.46, "rotation_up": 21.01, "upward_expansion": 54.97, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 36.41, "downward_expansion": 18.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.768001, 42.726001, 42.589477, 41.198796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 42.200001, "trend_reference": 39.271333, "distance_from_trend": 0.074575, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.626186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.527536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.519221, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.233017, "excess_performance": 0.150134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074575, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11873, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.527536, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145764, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085192, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258226, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.233017, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59938, "relative_activity": 3.280733, "balance": 0.630313, "dry_up": 1.417333, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054329, "annualized_volatility": 0.324626, "from_high_reference": -0.101745, "from_low_reference": 0.554901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.271333, "fair_value_reference": 27.626186, "structural_low": 32.700001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009424, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.008313, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.146837, "worst_return": -0.027381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001435, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006878, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.31123, "worst_return": -0.029213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003588, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006683, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112296, "worst_return": -0.030556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.054505, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014585, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098565, "worst_return": 0.010446, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040009, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004666, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031774, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018084, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029199, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029167, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04422, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.28283, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059066, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0109, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.209999, "volume": 964, "typical_volume": 265.1, "trend": 21.028667, "fair_value": 21.619635, "relative_strength": 0.766379, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", 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"activity_lines": [ 43.497667, 43.796, 42.284405, 40.608688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.744999, "volume": 2367, "typical_volume": 16639.05, "trend": 38.641333, "fair_value": 27.362404, "relative_strength": 9.869055, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.422612, "energy": 24.739907, "activity_lines": [ 42.633, 43.443091, 42.424286, 40.83243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.080002, "volume": 28115, "typical_volume": 15474.45, "trend": 38.96, "fair_value": 27.489135, "relative_strength": 7.546028, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.542203, "energy": 25.77115, "activity_lines": [ 41.895667, 42.969182, 42.469762, 40.989764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.200001, "volume": 59938, "typical_volume": 18269.7, "trend": 39.271333, "fair_value": 27.626186, "relative_strength": 8.519221, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.069529, "energy": 25.798917, "activity_lines": [ 41.768001, 42.726001, 42.589477, 41.198796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }