{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aed63601-c064-4c77-b06b-7595a85775ef", "symbol": "M11", "name": "Manufacturing Integration Technology Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.277, "architecture_energy": 90.478, "architecture_maturity": 51.14, "architecture_confidence": 81.823, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 8.06, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 85.39, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0232, 0.024818, 0.026867, 0.028105 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.023, "trend_reference": 0.030233, "distance_from_trend": -0.23925, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.022032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.227597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323529, "excess_performance": -0.478365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23925, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043934, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.420855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.518193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323529, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630408, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15000, "relative_activity": 0.368822, "balance": 0.630408, "dry_up": 2.25043, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063545, "annualized_volatility": 0.533569, "from_high_reference": -0.622951, "from_low_reference": 0.352941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.030233, "fair_value_reference": 0.022032, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.432432, "median_excess_return": -0.008649, "regime_survival": 0.702703, "best_return": 1.368421, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.011905, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027282, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.416667, "worst_return": -0.365854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.131404, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.129625, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.25, "worst_return": -0.380952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.26087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.470588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.148148, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.027, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 93650.0, "trend": 0.040633, "fair_value": 0.055301, "relative_strength": -38.300102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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0.028733, 0.029509, 0.02999, 0.031465 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.028, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 178415.0, "trend": 0.033433, "fair_value": 0.022667, "relative_strength": -14.088283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.051197, "energy": 62.794704, "activity_lines": [ 0.0284, 0.0292, 0.029733, 0.03109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.028, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 127000.0, "trend": 0.032933, "fair_value": 0.022564, "relative_strength": -15.364638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.570081, "energy": 59.594366, "activity_lines": [ 0.028133, 0.028909, 0.029505, 0.03074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.028, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 68865.0, "trend": 0.032567, "fair_value": 0.022462, "relative_strength": -19.263528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.277782, "energy": 57.469477, "activity_lines": [ 0.028, 0.0286, 0.0293, 0.030422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.022, "volume": 172000, "typical_volume": 65355.0, "trend": 0.032, "fair_value": 0.022321, "relative_strength": -37.105111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.664387, "energy": 76.609823, "activity_lines": [ 0.026, 0.027255, 0.028562, 0.02974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.023, "volume": 178100, "typical_volume": 51260.0, "trend": 0.0315, "fair_value": 0.022186, "relative_strength": -35.199472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.558703, "energy": 84.21081, "activity_lines": [ 0.024733, 0.026309, 0.027967, 0.029159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.023, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 40075.0, "trend": 0.030833, "fair_value": 0.022058, "relative_strength": -35.660613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.842538, "energy": 90.553283, "activity_lines": [ 0.0238, 0.025509, 0.0274, 0.028611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.023, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 40670.0, "trend": 0.030233, "fair_value": 0.022032, "relative_strength": -36.227597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.277212, "energy": 90.478063, "activity_lines": [ 0.0232, 0.024818, 0.026867, 0.028105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }