{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aed8fdf2-035e-4d49-84a1-874d04d06646", "symbol": "ALPEKA", "name": "ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.531, "architecture_energy": 41.992, "architecture_maturity": 69.41, "architecture_confidence": 81.512, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.89, "rotation_up": 47.49, "upward_expansion": 79.43, "deceleration": 63.6, "rotation_down": 26.34, "downward_expansion": 6.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.629333, 12.565818, 12.30619, 11.828774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.54, "trend_reference": 11.091, "distance_from_trend": 0.130646, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.764669, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.213502, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.27439, "excess_performance": 0.329057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130646, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116633, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.192135, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.27439, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.09067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17564209, "relative_activity": 0.795064, "balance": 1.09067, "dry_up": 1.172907, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05711, "annualized_volatility": 0.378936, "from_high_reference": -0.06278, "from_low_reference": 0.553903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.091, "fair_value_reference": 11.764669, "structural_low": 8.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.004115, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.005374, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.095941, "worst_return": -0.197306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01372, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.067575, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.141166, "worst_return": -0.340959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.12488, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.193874, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074836, "worst_return": -0.275562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.88, "volume": 30078280, "typical_volume": 22915197.3, "trend": 10.971667, "fair_value": 11.793408, "relative_strength": 23.010961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.726141, "energy": 47.526883, "activity_lines": [ 12.668667, 12.551091, 12.244429, 11.727591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.54, "volume": 17564209, "typical_volume": 22091565.6, "trend": 11.091, "fair_value": 11.764669, "relative_strength": 19.213502, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.530842, "energy": 41.99154, "activity_lines": [ 12.629333, 12.565818, 12.30619, 11.828774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }