{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aedca3fe-28cf-451e-9d61-542e884f3ab2", "symbol": "DOMO", "name": "Domo Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.191, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.261, "architecture_energy": 10.423, "architecture_maturity": 17.772, "architecture_confidence": 66.107, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.36, "rotation_up": 37.49, "upward_expansion": 34.17, "deceleration": 40.93, "rotation_down": 16.53, "downward_expansion": 40.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.716, 3.506545, 3.479905, 3.555871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.91, "trend_reference": 3.857167, "distance_from_trend": 0.013697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.679423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.549509, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -55.955885, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.251675, "excess_performance": -0.439128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013697, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.362171, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.549509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052603, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.559559, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13096, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251675, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.967393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5022413, "relative_activity": 0.56664, "balance": 1.967393, "dry_up": 1.634441, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19688, "annualized_volatility": 1.145778, "from_high_reference": -0.788525, "from_low_reference": 1.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.857167, "fair_value_reference": 8.679423, "structural_low": 1.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.022438, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.034717, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.634492, "worst_return": -0.304491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.078979, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.154646, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.073359, "worst_return": -0.394314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.241632, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.321181, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.902007, "worst_return": -0.529048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.417467, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.662995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.124604, "worst_return": -0.817607, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192469, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113721, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130882, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068477, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.350904, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.293392, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027665, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.285772, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.615044, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.075, "volume": 2929900, "typical_volume": 2381681.7, "trend": 14.888167, "fair_value": 42.663365, "relative_strength": -5.438676, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.077632, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.315625, "energy": 35.620969, "activity_lines": [ 3.199333, 3.276727, 3.393667, 3.696602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.48, "volume": 5159943, "typical_volume": 8934519.5, "trend": 4.3185, "fair_value": 8.933141, "relative_strength": -63.225247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.152504, "energy": 20.076501, "activity_lines": [ 3.336, 3.292909, 3.392333, 3.63143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.68, "volume": 41199836, "typical_volume": 10800870.9, "trend": 4.143167, "fair_value": 8.845962, "relative_strength": -59.159029, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.426992, "energy": 15.224909, "activity_lines": [ 3.508667, 3.352, 3.410571, 3.590237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.69, "volume": 6565225, "typical_volume": 9263451.6, "trend": 3.9895, "fair_value": 8.759167, "relative_strength": -57.80348, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.346339, "energy": 14.03763, "activity_lines": [ 3.600667, 3.409818, 3.432333, 3.561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.91, "volume": 5022413, "typical_volume": 8863491.75, "trend": 3.857167, "fair_value": 8.679423, "relative_strength": -55.955885, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.260754, "energy": 10.423182, "activity_lines": [ 3.716, 3.506545, 3.479905, 3.555871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }