{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aeddf8a7-8a83-4bba-81e1-2db635d6a937", "symbol": "ALUCON", "name": "Alucon Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.997, "architecture_energy": 89.375, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.672, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.76, "rotation_up": 81.76, "upward_expansion": 99.88, "deceleration": 39.03, "rotation_down": 11.01, "downward_expansion": 21.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 252.0, 246.909091, 241.131225, 233.457252 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 253.0, "trend_reference": 221.70204, "distance_from_trend": 0.141171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 169.178186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.495465, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.251205, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.350401, "excess_performance": 0.158076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105398, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.495465, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084137, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.092512, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011817, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.350401, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.867052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7500, "relative_activity": 0.818777, "balance": 1.867052, "dry_up": 0.657751, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026756, "annualized_volatility": 0.20851, "from_high_reference": -0.003937, "from_low_reference": 0.538918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 221.70204, "fair_value_reference": 169.178186, "structural_low": 187.35177, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.007127, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.00177, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.051151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.02657, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.007988, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.135443, "worst_return": -0.034091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04742, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.046538, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.202186, "worst_return": -0.028275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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68.047023, "energy": 52.537437, "activity_lines": [ 236.333333, 236.122673, 230.365574, 222.050005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 240.0, "volume": 7000, "typical_volume": 8985.0, "trend": 212.435834, "fair_value": 166.550923, "relative_strength": 4.312632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.463283, "energy": 51.76812, "activity_lines": [ 237.8, 236.836364, 231.975587, 223.950625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 252.0, "volume": 7100, "typical_volume": 9005.0, "trend": 214.746901, "fair_value": 167.196906, "relative_strength": 8.137229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.524907, "energy": 66.519489, "activity_lines": [ 242.866667, 239.745455, 234.544663, 226.503152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 253.0, "volume": 7100, "typical_volume": 9225.0, "trend": 217.075689, "fair_value": 167.851977, "relative_strength": 7.99445, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.628216, "energy": 84.599249, "activity_lines": [ 247.133333, 242.4, 236.990344, 228.971094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 253.0, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 9210.0, "trend": 219.388865, "fair_value": 168.515081, "relative_strength": 8.903597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.537474, "energy": 89.43726, "activity_lines": [ 250.2, 244.8, 239.176943, 231.288791 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 253.0, "volume": 7500, "typical_volume": 9160.0, "trend": 221.70204, "fair_value": 169.178186, "relative_strength": 9.251205, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.996781, "energy": 89.374716, "activity_lines": [ 252.0, 246.909091, 241.131225, 233.457252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }