{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aedfad1a-6bb5-4779-b024-0fd08e980774", "symbol": "VITL", "name": "Vital Farms\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.621, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.668, "architecture_energy": 16.502, "architecture_maturity": 52.304, "architecture_confidence": 54.13, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.3, "rotation_up": 29.78, "upward_expansion": 29.68, "deceleration": 52.86, "rotation_down": 17.35, "downward_expansion": 42.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.748667, 12.449273, 11.791333, 12.937742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.24, "trend_reference": 15.871333, "distance_from_trend": -0.228798, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.736154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.558699, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -59.552096, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.544134, "excess_performance": -0.731588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299928, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.558699, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120272, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.595521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173867, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.544134, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.086492, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10888209, "relative_activity": 0.820188, "balance": 1.086492, "dry_up": 0.611303, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122219, "annualized_volatility": 0.903897, "from_high_reference": -0.7696, "from_low_reference": 0.539623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.871333, "fair_value_reference": 27.736154, "structural_low": 7.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009396, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001952, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.260039, "worst_return": -0.189681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.200046, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.13162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344766, "worst_return": -0.186248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059787, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.042401, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.159002, "worst_return": -0.143525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.913787, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.656057, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.705607, "worst_return": 0.121967, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06747, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056428, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245128, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041694, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051749, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.250982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169611, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065879, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.609946, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038492, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.51, "volume": 3081954, "typical_volume": 1719408.6, "trend": 13.991667, "fair_value": 18.296667, "relative_strength": -23.35974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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19.059333, "fair_value": 27.686795, "relative_strength": -61.657037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.187016, "energy": 44.079463, "activity_lines": [ 11.402, 10.801818, 11.620048, 14.496452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.95, "volume": 7893592, "typical_volume": 14810263.9, "trend": 18.347667, "fair_value": 27.704038, "relative_strength": -60.954053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.345612, "energy": 30.971209, "activity_lines": [ 12.052, 11.215636, 11.56619, 14.102301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.55, "volume": 7339059, "typical_volume": 14021864.2, "trend": 17.686667, "fair_value": 27.722436, "relative_strength": -56.504516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.62296, "energy": 24.649376, "activity_lines": [ 12.708, 11.760909, 11.63719, 13.792774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.02, "volume": 8098149, "typical_volume": 13832874.75, "trend": 17.063, "fair_value": 27.732564, "relative_strength": -56.682903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.344005, "energy": 24.289479, "activity_lines": [ 12.990667, 12.126, 11.693619, 13.491699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.73, "volume": 6135390, "typical_volume": 13608775.85, "trend": 16.493333, "fair_value": 27.734679, "relative_strength": -57.024884, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.740913, "energy": 20.440521, "activity_lines": [ 13.002667, 12.355818, 11.755143, 13.212151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.24, "volume": 10888209, "typical_volume": 13275258.25, "trend": 15.871333, "fair_value": 27.736154, "relative_strength": -59.552096, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.667561, "energy": 16.502473, "activity_lines": [ 12.748667, 12.449273, 11.791333, 12.937742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }