{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aee04f53-2943-47e5-a1fc-eab04a91e9eb", "symbol": "ALB", "name": "Albemarle Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.714, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.693, "architecture_energy": 76.052, "architecture_maturity": 23.44, "architecture_confidence": 91.887, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.44, "rotation_up": 13.74, "upward_expansion": 18.07, "deceleration": 38.07, "rotation_down": 71.5, "downward_expansion": 93.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.551333, 128.726936, 146.85649, 154.697823 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 131.11, "trend_reference": 162.465187, "distance_from_trend": -0.192996, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.905526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151042, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.490632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1935, "excess_performance": -0.319124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011542, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.557154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.699728, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710487, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13967617, "relative_activity": 1.291952, "balance": 0.710487, "dry_up": 1.097035, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137162, "annualized_volatility": 0.557331, "from_high_reference": -0.405332, "from_low_reference": 0.864764 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.465187, "fair_value_reference": 113.905526, "structural_low": 111.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.022025, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.018986, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.289299, "worst_return": -0.220964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012725, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.086012, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.414248, "worst_return": -0.319339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.157273, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.217937, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.506702, "worst_return": -0.282124, "sufficient": true }, 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"close": 120.78, "volume": 9616810, "typical_volume": 10452931.3, "trend": 165.444893, "fair_value": 115.220937, "relative_strength": -18.03447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.393153, "energy": 83.442152, "activity_lines": [ 129.502, 142.680361, 158.967503, 163.058282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.85, "volume": 11034245, "typical_volume": 10413782.45, "trend": 164.297485, "fair_value": 114.683566, "relative_strength": -21.783187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.429524, "energy": 85.792572, "activity_lines": [ 122.689333, 135.761111, 154.11385, 159.794095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.64, "volume": 12822611, "typical_volume": 10578340.65, "trend": 163.444746, "fair_value": 114.212807, "relative_strength": -21.12214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.781677, "energy": 83.425324, "activity_lines": [ 119.84, 130.532812, 149.748016, 156.783935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 131.11, "volume": 13967617, "typical_volume": 10811248.7, "trend": 162.465187, "fair_value": 113.905526, "relative_strength": -15.490632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.692639, "energy": 76.051988, "activity_lines": [ 122.551333, 128.726936, 146.85649, 154.697823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }