{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aee2950e-ce19-4b9e-9f79-0cd2ea9c3383", "symbol": "1460", "name": "Everest Textile Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.699, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.575, "architecture_energy": 35.944, "architecture_maturity": 9.831, "architecture_confidence": 72.233, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.35, "rotation_up": 14.65, "upward_expansion": 18.45, "deceleration": 56.61, "rotation_down": 67.08, "downward_expansion": 48.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.716667, 6.967636, 7.06119, 7.044172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.64, "trend_reference": 6.974, "distance_from_trend": -0.047892, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.116923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067013, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.263196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026393, "excess_performance": -0.467765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047892, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052044, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067013, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037712, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00339, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026393, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.224289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1059751, "relative_activity": 0.275247, "balance": 1.224289, "dry_up": 0.471321, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079703, "annualized_volatility": 0.418252, "from_high_reference": -0.236782, "from_low_reference": 0.216117 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.974, "fair_value_reference": 7.116923, "structural_low": 6.46, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.059084, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.075691, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.06639, "worst_return": -0.118029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077922, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.163343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025707, "worst_return": -0.163237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.083548, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.18908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015584, "worst_return": -0.150761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020779, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.279408, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.008997, "worst_return": -0.070039, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072682, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021888, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04426, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004412, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071331, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06577, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048896, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014663, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008955, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 7.91, "volume": 8420008, "typical_volume": 11193289.05, "trend": 8.041667, "fair_value": 9.463399, "relative_strength": -6.902178, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 6.92, "volume": 2422167, "typical_volume": 4327033.7, "trend": 6.945667, "fair_value": 7.156795, "relative_strength": -23.07456, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.985425, "energy": 19.098089, "activity_lines": [ 7.232667, 7.266727, 7.191667, 7.101548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.7, "volume": 2149427, "typical_volume": 4225567.75, "trend": 6.957667, "fair_value": 7.143974, "relative_strength": -23.761657, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.330632, "energy": 15.148128, "activity_lines": [ 7.016667, 7.169091, 7.151048, 7.085699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.64, "volume": 1627336, "typical_volume": 4075013.15, "trend": 6.966, "fair_value": 7.130769, "relative_strength": -25.499761, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.048704, "energy": 27.4492, "activity_lines": [ 6.802, 7.065636, 7.10519, 7.065204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.64, "volume": 1059751, "typical_volume": 3850175.6, "trend": 6.974, "fair_value": 7.116923, "relative_strength": -27.263196, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.574943, "energy": 35.94367, "activity_lines": [ 6.716667, 6.967636, 7.06119, 7.044172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }