{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aee9f695-9cd2-453a-bfaf-80d00c9e6f27", "symbol": "SFC", "name": "Sagicor Financial Company Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 84.39, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.747, "architecture_energy": 17.106, "architecture_maturity": 50.754, "architecture_confidence": 62.183, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.19, "rotation_up": 34.45, "upward_expansion": 19.49, "deceleration": 42.16, "rotation_down": 18.16, "downward_expansion": 51.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.72, 8.623455, 8.641789, 8.782407 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.83, "trend_reference": 8.952358, "distance_from_trend": -0.013668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.901111, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279504, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.051848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.068267, "excess_performance": -0.188688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013668, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000504, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279504, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063824, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068267, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.320874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113900, "relative_activity": 0.319065, "balance": 1.320874, "dry_up": 1.433204, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045575, "annualized_volatility": 0.235572, "from_high_reference": -0.141708, "from_low_reference": 0.282696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.952358, "fair_value_reference": 6.901111, "structural_low": 8.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.010152, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.008575, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.137635, "worst_return": -0.082893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042763, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005564, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.210002, "worst_return": -0.182917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.083107, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.137384, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.454903, "worst_return": -0.147977, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.984742, "energy": 23.139043, "activity_lines": [ 8.546, 8.46599, 8.674698, 8.832249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.58, "volume": 458900, "typical_volume": 331020.0, "trend": 8.984462, "fair_value": 6.83637, "relative_strength": -9.33646, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.650605, "energy": 18.920576, "activity_lines": [ 8.568667, 8.496856, 8.646333, 8.804793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.77, "volume": 957800, "typical_volume": 367910.0, "trend": 8.962525, "fair_value": 6.868548, "relative_strength": -6.83798, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.113934, "energy": 18.211128, "activity_lines": [ 8.648667, 8.559273, 8.639032, 8.790957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.83, "volume": 113900, "typical_volume": 356980.0, "trend": 8.952358, "fair_value": 6.901111, "relative_strength": -9.051848, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.747072, "energy": 17.106385, "activity_lines": [ 8.72, 8.623455, 8.641789, 8.782407 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }