{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aeeb5b35-68ab-4c38-a21a-11269d3e5bc1", "symbol": "CMRE", "name": "Costamare Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 51.432, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.42, "architecture_energy": 25.977, "architecture_maturity": 44.255, "architecture_confidence": 85.126, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.13, "rotation_up": 24.59, "upward_expansion": 14.42, "deceleration": 45.25, "rotation_down": 34.4, "downward_expansion": 62.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.122669, 15.021866, 15.507053, 15.82848 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.66, "trend_reference": 16.111391, "distance_from_trend": -0.090085, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.496795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.826995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072971, "excess_performance": -0.198596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002528, "read": "Rising" 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13.76752, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.008376, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01004, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.18018, "worst_return": -0.126336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072518, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.009919, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.276734, "worst_return": -0.172151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021639, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140067, "worst_return": -0.088633, "sufficient": false }, { 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"trend": 16.150847, "fair_value": 10.399142, "relative_strength": -0.436681, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.622864, "energy": 39.562391, "activity_lines": [ 14.942729, 15.074734, 15.687739, 15.96175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.58, "volume": 1747412, "typical_volume": 2082421.35, "trend": 16.154833, "fair_value": 10.450277, "relative_strength": -2.790437, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.689586, "energy": 23.611807, "activity_lines": [ 15.228264, 15.1243, 15.64027, 15.924921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.66, "volume": 1727661, "typical_volume": 2061814.4, "trend": 16.111391, "fair_value": 10.496795, "relative_strength": -11.826995, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.42039, "energy": 25.976886, "activity_lines": [ 15.122669, 15.021866, 15.507053, 15.82848 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }