{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aef5d216-0127-4251-88fd-915adb92b923", "symbol": "3236", "name": "ABC Taiwan Electronics Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.62, "architecture_energy": 24.084, "architecture_maturity": 61.024, "architecture_confidence": 83.061, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.09, "rotation_up": 14.48, "upward_expansion": 42.33, "deceleration": 87.38, "rotation_down": 47.63, "downward_expansion": 36.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.713334, 49.194545, 50.368571, 46.545484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.700001, "trend_reference": 41.656667, "distance_from_trend": 0.097063, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.703459, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.849943, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.312659, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.658802, "excess_performance": 0.21743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.278596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.849943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092112, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033127, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.658802, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.005711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23995418, "relative_activity": 0.583967, "balance": 2.005711, "dry_up": 0.464788, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.238849, "annualized_volatility": 0.913805, "from_high_reference": -0.396301, "from_low_reference": 1.767517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.656667, "fair_value_reference": 24.703459, "structural_low": 26.299999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020906, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042404, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.79357, "worst_return": -0.097412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055503, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.05232, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.674277, "worst_return": -0.121951, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.081479, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145407, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267635, "worst_return": -0.212195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107221, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007752, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.167089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.269231, "active": false }, { 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"fair_value": 24.219292, "relative_strength": 19.835132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.743052, "energy": 42.452266, "activity_lines": [ 59.803332, 60.36909, 51.749762, 46.229892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.0, "volume": 17832444, "typical_volume": 40891207.1, "trend": 40.476667, "fair_value": 24.342056, "relative_strength": 1.177319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.860571, "energy": 21.325968, "activity_lines": [ 52.713332, 57.453636, 51.499762, 46.358172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.75, "volume": 16829830, "typical_volume": 41448868.35, "trend": 40.805, "fair_value": 24.445892, "relative_strength": -5.890651, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.288612, "energy": 23.547323, "activity_lines": [ 46.473333, 53.890908, 50.880952, 46.246774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.900002, "volume": 17735564, "typical_volume": 40358000.95, "trend": 41.165, "fair_value": 24.5597, "relative_strength": -3.62544, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.655976, "energy": 28.277804, "activity_lines": [ 42.866667, 50.978182, 50.412857, 46.252903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 45.700001, "volume": 23995418, "typical_volume": 41090351.3, "trend": 41.656667, "fair_value": 24.703459, "relative_strength": 3.312659, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.620181, "energy": 24.084028, "activity_lines": [ 42.713334, 49.194545, 50.368571, 46.545484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }