{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aef8a652-c227-4ef6-bc85-7db8a9fa4610", "symbol": "CRDL", "name": "Cardiol Therapeutics Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.4, "architecture_energy": 50.088, "architecture_maturity": 31.045, "architecture_confidence": 68.331, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.74, "rotation_up": 76.37, "upward_expansion": 71.37, "deceleration": 56.37, "rotation_down": 8.88, "downward_expansion": 12.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.788, 1.677545, 1.686071, 1.66743 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.99, "trend_reference": 1.612833, "distance_from_trend": 0.233853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.853045, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073908, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.274723, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.452555, "excess_performance": 0.332133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.233853, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079433, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.132747, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137773, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.452555, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.255, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 573200, "relative_activity": 1.250014, "balance": 2.255, "dry_up": 1.31053, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081948, "annualized_volatility": 0.622951, "from_high_reference": -0.145923, "from_low_reference": 0.62449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.612833, "fair_value_reference": 1.853045, "structural_low": 1.225, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010631, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025032, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.284314, "worst_return": -0.173077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.104693, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1256, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.014815, "worst_return": -0.218045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.328859, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.242336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.557252, "worst_return": -0.22963, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.510295, "positive_rate": 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"Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020134, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.110345, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": 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"fair_value": 1.842212, "relative_strength": -17.233671, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.186679, "energy": 49.482576, "activity_lines": [ 1.488, 1.546091, 1.645881, 1.615409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.69, "volume": 632100, "typical_volume": 460600.0, "trend": 1.57, "fair_value": 1.845673, "relative_strength": -2.330463, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.642835, "energy": 13.505113, "activity_lines": [ 1.555, 1.56, 1.65, 1.623731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.67, "volume": 539000, "typical_volume": 468140.0, "trend": 1.579667, "fair_value": 1.847212, "relative_strength": -2.856951, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.181994, "energy": 7.282265, "activity_lines": [ 1.6, 1.572273, 1.650738, 1.630183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.76, "volume": 659500, "typical_volume": 476820.0, "trend": 1.593, "fair_value": 1.848237, "relative_strength": 3.643753, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.645674, "energy": 27.775275, "activity_lines": [ 1.664, 1.603455, 1.658286, 1.641817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.99, "volume": 573200, "typical_volume": 458555.0, "trend": 1.612833, "fair_value": 1.853045, "relative_strength": 13.274723, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.39954, "energy": 50.087527, "activity_lines": [ 1.788, 1.677545, 1.686071, 1.66743 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }