{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aefd3459-6006-4e3b-a356-0e83a0d45e9b", "symbol": "VI2", "name": "Trans-China Automotive Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.714, "architecture_energy": 91.699, "architecture_maturity": 96.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.858, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 8.65, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 82.97, "downward_expansion": 97.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0138, 0.015799, 0.01859, 0.020589 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.023233, "distance_from_trend": -0.440453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.054955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.763443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.949446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.535714, "excess_performance": -0.690549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.440453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156183, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.763443, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.609494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.535714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64069, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181000, "relative_activity": 0.09984, "balance": 0.64069, "dry_up": 0.744613, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159414, "annualized_volatility": 0.618905, "from_high_reference": -0.682927, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.023233, "fair_value_reference": 0.054955, "structural_low": 0.013, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.225806, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.050546, "regime_survival": 0.935484, "best_return": 0.275, "worst_return": -0.487805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.13913, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.163051, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.413793, "worst_return": -0.575758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.233333, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.245215, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.634783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.162162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03125, "active": 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"typical_volume": 2049788.9, "trend": 0.0249, "fair_value": 0.057417, "relative_strength": -59.306212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.287455, "energy": 93.2435, "activity_lines": [ 0.016998, 0.018853, 0.021018, 0.022662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.014, "volume": 870000, "typical_volume": 1944353.9, "trend": 0.0244, "fair_value": 0.056596, "relative_strength": -58.890683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.100362, "energy": 93.206644, "activity_lines": [ 0.015665, 0.017744, 0.02018, 0.021959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 2949100, "typical_volume": 1900898.9, "trend": 0.023833, "fair_value": 0.055776, "relative_strength": -58.307654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.001623, "energy": 90.938897, "activity_lines": [ 0.014732, 0.016799, 0.019399, 0.021288 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 181000, "typical_volume": 1812893.9, "trend": 0.023233, "fair_value": 0.054955, "relative_strength": -60.949446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.713832, "energy": 91.699264, "activity_lines": [ 0.0138, 0.015799, 0.01859, 0.020589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }